We stand on the precipice of what could be a dramatic breakthrough for the 76ers: the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals.
Though prognosticators have already looked past this Game 7 assuming that the Celtics will meet the Heat in the ECF, the possibility, though surely unlikely, that the Sixers will somehow make it to round 3 of the playoff must be dealt with.
How did we get here?
The season began as a blur. The Sixers dominating the division and holding the 3rd seed in the playoffs until a late swoon that sent them sideways. This has been the story of the team: at times a well-oiled machine, at others completely useless.
The bad times give us a window into what needs improvements. And during those stretches, like the long stretches in the Celtics series when the Sixers offense looked absolutely catatonic, we see: the need for a go-to scorer, a lack of shooting, a lack of a post-up game, and almost no knowledge of halfcourt basketball.
The good times evince a team that has a lot of "balance": meaning a plethora of good not great players. In addition there's: energy, explosive fast breaks, stout, chasing defense, athleticism, and grit.
Doug Collins has done a remarkable job finding roles for these players and in the regular season it seemed like he had it down pat with Meeks starting and ET, Thad and Lou off the bench. That changed when the team started to decline and Turner got more minutes.
Turner is one of the more important enigmas on the squad. A second pick. He can dribble. He can't shoot. He shoots too much anyway. And he is long and can defend three positions. His head is always set on bobble but his commitment to the game is sound. At points in the season, it looked like he was Lebron lite or at least a more versatile Andre Iguodala. At others he seems like a rookie severely lacking in the ability to finish plays and without the best judgment.
Game 6 showed us the virtues of Lou Williams: a free agent this summer (if he indeed does opt-out). He did his best Allen Iverson impersonation in the second half. On this team, despite my usual miserliness with cap dollars that aren't even mine, he is needed--or at least someone like him is needed.
The rotation of minor stars rising to the top has been a joy to watch. Spencer Hawes looked great in the Chicago series--along with Lavoy Allen--only to fade against Boston. Thaddeus Young looked like the only guy on the team who cared during Boston's blowouts. Yet in other contests he barely registered. Lou has been way up and sometimes way off.
In the end, the team has a few knowns and more question marks. Let's deal with them now:
Free Agents. The most immediate concern will be the free agents: Lavoy Allen, Spencer Hawes, and Lou Williams. All will be unrestricted. Hawes is most likely to leave but what exists behind him? Only Nikola Vucevic and Tony Battie--two players that haven't figured into the playoff rotation at all. Hawes will probably get a rich contract from a below-the-cap team. He is a good offensive player and a young player with room to grow. My fear is that his contract demands will be too much to swallow.
Lou Williams and Lavoy Allen are more important to tie up. Lavoy because, despite his asleep defense in Game 5, is a cool, confident big man who doesn't make offensive mistakes and who has the confidence to knock down shots when they matter. Still, let's not overblow the worth of a player whose stats barely registered in the regular season. He's not the solution at Power Forward. A solid backup more like it.
Lou is a big question mark. At times he looks like the missing piece, at others he can't get going. He needs to improve and get more consistent. Someone out there will want to pay the runner-up for sixth man of the year. The Sixers should try to keep him--and their other free agents--if only because players are hard to replace given the current NBA system. Allen will stay, Spencer and Lou might not. From the player's perspective, Allen needs to stay (he's not gonna find a better role elsewhere), Lou probably wants to (his role in Philly is nice, elsewhere a backup PG may not get as much burn), and Spencer can go where he pleases.
Vets. The team really only has two vets: Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. Both get a significant amount of grief largely because they have not always played up to their paychecks. Elton Brand was a warrior in Game 6 but too often he has been a highly limited albeit serviceable big man. Any number of middle-of-the-road Jordan Hill types could replace his production--while not replacing his experience and grit. Brand is an obvious subtraction if, as the owner implied, someone else comes along that the Sixers could sign.
Andre Iguodala has emerged, amazingly, as a closer in these playoffs. Hitting crucial free throws and nailing important 3s. His defense sets the tone for the rest of the team. His attitude is a conundrum. He always seems calmly depressed. He does care about the game but he's a bit of a downer in his comments. You almost never see him excited. He takes pride in his work but seems not to want to emotionally invest in it. This is the legacy of years of trade rumors. He is offensively challenged and that is obvious for all to see. He can dunk a basketball like few others can. At this point, it will be hard for the team to justify jettisoning a player so important to the overall picture and character of the squad. That said, the argument for swapping him for a big man or a scorer does have legs.
The Young Heart. Most of the team is composed of the Young Heart (Lou and Spencer and Lavoy should be included here but I covered them already).
Everything begins with Jrue Holiday who may be the team's best player. He looks like he's 12. But he makes great decisions (most of the time), controls the tempo, can pass, defends hard, and, when he's on his offensive game, is the team's most complete offensive player. It is truly amazing that in a draft that saw Hasheem Thabeet picked second and Jonny Flynn picked sixth, Jrue Holiday fell to the seventeenth pick (this is especially so because he was in the conversation for the fourth pick!). More amazing: Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, and Darren Collison were all picked after Jrue.
Jrue is the heart of the team. He needs to become a leader and dribble less. He needs to improve his decision-making. But he is the team's best player.
Evan Turner, as previously discussed, is an enigma. He's not a bust. But his shot is generally broken. He can score at the rim. He can dribble. He can defend. Too often he thinks he's the team's go-to scorer. In the Game 4 comeback, ET shot the ball 22 times (and made just 5). He has a lot of talent and a lot of room to grow. It's unclear whether he'll become a mainstay on this team yet. He is a necessary ball handler and has good size. But he needs to improve on offense and defense for his performance to match his pedigree. One big question with him is: where do you play him? Jrue is the 1. Is ET the backup 1? The 2? A 3? All of the above? DC has done a good job letting Turner share PG responsibilities but he needs to expand his game away from just being a big, ball-hogging point to become the player he can be.
Thaddeus Young is a high energy, perfect bench player. DC gave him the right role. I don't think he can be an NBA starter--not on talent, but just on his lack of a defined position. Thad cares. He can rebound. He has energy. The contract he was given this summer is surely rich and it does imply that the Sixers want more than spot minutes for him, but I still don't see Elton Brand's replacement here. His offensive game is still too raw and he still relies heavily on energy and speed (both of which he has in abundance). He is a great backup big.
Lavoy Allen is a wonderful rotation player to have. A cool character who can hit shots. He should be kept. Spencer Hawes brings size and shooting. He fits well with the team. My assumption is that he'll be gone. Lou William is the lone true scorer. The Sixers will almost definitely do their best to keep him.
The Future? Saturday's Game 7 will determine a lot. And I don't think that this team will have the opportunity to go so far in the playoffs for a long time. It is talented but lacking in scoring and size. Chicago with Rose would have beaten them in Round 1.
The Sixers need to add another 4 or 5 in the draft and perhaps through free agency. They need another scorer even if Lou stays. They need to internally improve especially since Jrue and ET are so young.
The Indiana Pacers, who whipped the Sixers in the regular season, are a good comparison point for this team. Indy's big differentiator is size. David West and Roy Hibbert are way better than EB and Hawes. The rest of Indy's team is similar: Collison, Paul George, George Hill, Danny Granger, Hansbrough, etc. Indy may have a bit more grit and offensive firepower but Iggy is similar to (probably better than) Granger, Holiday is better than Collison and Hill, Young and Hansbrough are similar energy guys, and Paul George is certainly a step beyond ET (but the Sixers have Lou too). The Sixers are deeper than the other up-and-coming "balanced" (i.e., no superstar) team in the East, but they don't compete on size.
Amazingly, if the Sixers beat the Celtics they'd face another hardnosed defensive team that has a thin frontcourt--so the Sixers' size problem will continue to be hidden.
Philly's learned a lot during these playoffs. First and foremost, is the experience that these defensive struggles have yielded. The team seemed stuck in Atlanta Hawks-style mediocrity and has had a chance to break out of that and truly evaluate its talent. Iguodala, Jrue and Lavoy have risen to the occasion as have many others on the roster at different points (Thad, Spencer, Lou, ET, EB). The future is murky for the 76ers but as a fan the ride this season has been something to remember.
