Revisionist History and the Sixers

The Story the Miami SuperTeam would like you to believe:

Wade, LeBron and Bosh played on crappy teams for years. They gave their cities all they had and then some. But their GMs sucked and their teammates were mediocre. After trying to make it happen "on their own," they decided to do it TOGETHER.

The Real Deal:

Wade won the championship in 2006 with Shaquille O'Neal and a bunch of mercenaries (Gary Payton, Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, James Posey). He then got injured and the Heat traded Shaq for Shawn Marion and Marion for Jermaine O'Neal. After playing with LeBron and Bosh in the summer of 2008, Wade told Pat Riley to "clear the decks" so that the three could join together in Miami. A late-season 2009-10 story that Wade was "frustrated" with his teammates was a smokescreen.

Bosh "toiled" in Toronto by not winning anything though he had an okay supporting cast. Bryan Colangelo failed him miserably by choosing to create a weak Euro-style squad around him that could not play defense. Though Bosh was leaving Toronto (for warm weather, he's from the Southeast) no matter what.

LeBron had the best team in the East. Fine, without him they would not be great, but the Lakers wouldn't be great without Kobe, the Magic wouldn't be great without Dwight, etc. In 2007, they got swept by the Spurs but things were promising. In 2008, the Cavs lost to the new-look "Big Three" Celtics who were en route to winning it all. In 2009, they went down to the Magic who were en route to winning it the East. In 2010, after valiant efforts the previous two years, an injured and/or not-so-interested LeBron went down to Boston who was en route to winning the East. His teammates may not have been stellar, but LeBron DID have a strong supporting cast and seemed to enjoy himself in Cleveland. It's curious then to think why he bolted the best team in the East to form a new best team and why he seemed resigned to losing versus Boston in the playoffs.

The Sixers:

Notes-

• Should we have taken a big man? How many opportunities come up to take one high in the draft? Cousins and Favors are both clearly skilled. Neither is Olowakandi or Hasheem Thabeet. So why pass on them when there's no other clear way to get someone that big and that good????
• Will Evan Turner be the SCORER we need or just another greatly skilled swingman who passes it around a la Iguodala, etc.
• The Sixers are clearly NOT a free agent destination, so we have to build through the draft and trades. No other way to do it. No reason to hoard cap room in the hopes that someone will want to join this squad in Philly. Our only FAs ever have been overpayed, injured big men. Probably won't change.
• I think Ed Stefanski is paralyzed. The team won a shade over 25 games last year and he's doing nothing. Typical additions of washed-up "name recognition" guys (Noc, Battie) and promise that "the young guys" will improve. What's the vision here? I think there is none. Just waiting out the years until Elton Brand's deal expires a la every other injured big man this team has seen in my lifetime.

Rise of the Create-a-Teams

If Chris Paul, Amare and Melo really are aching to make a new Big Three in New York, what does this mean for the NBA?

• Players "hand-picking" their squads once their rookie contracts run out.
• Shorter contracts with guys gearing up to play together in the top locales once they're out of their indentured servitude.
• The Rise of the SuperTeams or Create-a-Teams?? Superstars joining forces to push off Miami. That is, IF Miami is successful.
• The Rise of the Team-Teams. Milwaukee, Oklahoma City and others will try to create tight-knit squads to knock off the Mini-Team USAs forming (notice that Bosh, Wade and LeBron chose their team USA jersey numbers for the Heat. Sounds like they think they're gonna yuk it up against the Slovenian Sixers and NJ Reds).
• The Fall of the GM and the Rise of the Mega-Agencies. Remember the power of David Falk? Mega-Agencies (CAA in particular) will start driving the league.
• And, yet, there's one HUGE speed bump to the New World Order forming: the new collective bargaining agreement. If it creates more restricted free agency (doubtful) or lower salaries or higher incentives to stay with your squad, it could stop the process. But, if it creates shorter contracts that may be partially guaranteed, it could create more player movement and more potential superteams driven by players not GMs. Root for an organization? Nah. Root for a superteam joining on your turf.

Who Deserves "It"?

Amid all the controversy about the Great Miami Team-up of 2010, a lingering feeling of "this is unfair" remains. At first, I thought it was because this was players not management calling the shots. Perhaps it was a 20th century gut reaction, I thought. This is a new era. Free agency means that players have freedom and now they can create their own teams. It had never happened before. Usually teams would have space for one, maybe two players and those players never made it seem like they'd colluded to join forces. When the Magic signed Grant Hill and Tracy McGrady, it wasn't because those two had been dying to be teammates for years. Those were the two free agents that the Magic were able to convince to switch teams (and, yes, money was a factor).

To that end, it got me thinking that this was the first time in NBA history that an organization was not going for a title but rather a collection of players. When management builds a team--like Oklahoma City is doing and like the Spurs did--everything they get has been earned. But when a team is filled with mercenaries and front-runners, like the 2010 and 2006 Heat, it doesn't feel like a championship is the culmination of years of hard work, research, sweat and tears. Instead, it feels like a manufactured championship; unearned, undeserved. The players "deserve" it in the sense that they won the actual games, but what did the organization do? Collect some top talent and mercenaries that wanted to play by the beach? Have insider knowledge that Wade and Bosh and LeBron and Mike Miller wanted to ball together and were willing to take slight paycuts to do it? This wasn't an organizational coup, this was a players' coup.

They dictated the terms and made it happen. I don't think Pat Riley did much convincing. This is what they wanted to do. He just happened to be the only one to know.

So how do you root for a team or an organization that just happened to be the place where 4 good friends decided to join forces and win a crapload of games? It'll make for exciting basketball, but how can you be a loyal fan of a TEAM in such a league? You can't. You just have to wait for your team to orchestrate something similar--which 90% of the teams cannot do. Only squads with desirable destinations--L.A., Orlando, NY, Chicago--will be in the mix for such a strategy.

These places will be more like "landing spots" than teams. You can't say that you developed LeBron or Bosh if you're Miami. You can't say that you gathered assets and then traded for them. I don't know if you can even say that you successfully wooed them with a business pitch. All you can say is that you suffered a middling season or two, cut a lot of players (who then miraculously decided to return--Haslem, Jones, Joel Anthony, Arroyo), and "cleared cap space" so that you could be a landing spot for top free agents who wanted to play together.

Oklahoma City and San Antonio have "earned it" through the draft and developing players. Boston "earned it" somewhat by gathering guys like Al Jefferson to put together for trades. The Lakers "earned it" by developing Kobe, retaining Phil, and (much less so) by stealing Gasol.

But the Heat only "earned it" by getting rid of everyone on their team and then "lucking" into 3 stars who wanted to play together. The thing is, it was no luck. Prokhorov knew that Wade and Bosh were going together to Miami all along. I'm guessing that LeBron was leaning that way all along too. If Wade knew he had Bosh, then maybe LeBron just had a better pokerface. These guys planned it along. Not an organization. It's like a create-a-team in a video game. You might as well call them the Powder Mill Creekwater. So do they deserve a championship? The organization certainly doesn't.

Notes

• Having Billy King sign with the Nets is a joke and it makes our GM choice look crappy and provincial. It's like we swapped GM's with the freakin' Nets. Stefanski sucks.
• Can we please get Kevin Pritchard as our GM????!!!!!
• I'm tired of Wade, Bron and Bosh shitting on their old teammates. LeBron has said that Kobe had people on his team to carry him through, they've all said that they're done playing with mediocre teammates. Isn't this classless? Aren't you supposed to let the media trash on your teammates but defend them all the way? The guys in Cleveland especially fought hard for LeBron. Those were his buddies for years. Now he's saying that they sucked and that he always wanted to play with Team USA talents rather than regular NBA players. It's like the only way to win is on an All-Star team. And by the way, yes, Miami had a purposely crappy supporting cast (to save cap space) and Toronto made some real bad moves last year (Turkoglu for one), but Cleveland had the best record in the league two years running. Was this "toiling with crappy teammates"?? And if it was so bad, why did it seem like LeBron was having so much fun? This wreaks of revisionist history. And like wrestling...LeBron going from a good guy to a bad guy with the simple manipulation of a narrative.

LeBron and the New NBA Season

I've been mulling the changes in the NBA due to LeBron's defection for some time.

I think my initial impulse was that it would be "unfair" for the 3 big FAs to join up in Miami. I thought that it would be bad for competition and generally was bad sportsmanship. When you're playing a pick-up game, it's always obnoxious when the three best guys wanna play together so they can mop the floor with everyone else.

So, I think to me the big question will be: is this team TOO good? I asked a similar question when Barkley and Pippen joined the Rockets (leading to Pippen later calling Barkley a fatass who couldn't get in shape) and when Malone and Payton joined the Lakers (leading to Karl Malone's famous "hunting for little Mexican girls" comment). Those teams imploded memorably, but they were also one-shot deals full of stars who were on their last legs and they went down to "real" teams. The Rockets lost to the Sonics and Jazz; the Lakers famously went down to an incredibly tight Detroit Pistons team.

Yet this new combination is different. It's not a one-shot flier. All 3 guys signed 6-year deals (Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem have also joined up for 5). This is three franchise guys joining together at the height of their careers. LeBron and Wade are arguably two of the top 3 or 4 or 5 players in the league. Bosh is the best young power forward in the league.

This is the first time that players made it happen, not owners. You can't say Kupchack got Chris Wallace again or Kevin McHale gifted Danny Ainge. That's the beautiful and ugly part of this arrangement. It's not about a little kid dreaming up how he can craft the perfect team, it's the three best guys available saying screw it, let's join up and circumventing the traditional GM-built team. You can pat Pat Riley on the back all you want, but he didn't really "do" anything that the Nets, Bulls, Knicks, and others weren't doing. He cleared more cap space, yes. But he took the same risk that others did. Perhaps he even had inside information from Wade. Everyone else assumed that Wade and LeBron would want to join a team with "assets," so we assumed that they'd wanna join the Bulls with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. The Knicks went the same course when they committed to Amare because they thought "we're not attractive otherwise." The Nets had Favors, Lopez and Harris...all were expendable, but it was thought that adding LeBron and Bosh to the mix would make for a great squad.

No one thought, "You wanna have no one on your team so that they can all join up here." One reason was that this was a humongous risk. Say the Knicks don't sign Amare, they trade Gallinari for nothing (like the Heat strangely did with Beasley only to replace him with Miller), maybe they dump Wilson Chandler too. Then they have two options: win huge or become a horrible team. The Nets ended up having to scrounge for scraps: Travis Outlaw, Johan Petro, and Anthony Morrow with their cap room.

One reason that the Heat were THE ONLY TEAM that could pursue this strategy was the salary cap rules. A team can go over the cap to sign it's own player when they have Bird Rights. The Heat already had Wade, he was a magnet for the other two. They could free up space for Bosh and then wait to see if LeBron would want to come too. I think that the worst-kept secret of free agency was that Wade and Bosh were joining up. After meeting with both, Mikhail Prokhorov said that he was convinced they were going to the Heat. I think it's highly likely that LeBron made a charade of joining other squads but had made up his mind to join those two long ago too. I think it's a definite that Riley pursued this strategy not because he's a visionary or an amazing genius, but because Wade told him it was possible. Wade was THE ONLY big free agent to recruit other players. LeBron would not meet with Tom Izzo nor would he give assurances to FAs that wanted to join Cleveland over the years. The Twitter picture of Bosh and Wade dining waiting for "someone else" was a ridiculous give-away. LeBron pretended to mull his choice, but the Heat had him all along.

The hubris involved in the decisions here was offputting to many, myself included. The Decision show was ill-conceived and overwrought. LeBron wants to say "I'm still the Man," even though I'm joining an All-Star team. Wade and Bosh and LeBron met with teams in what was more of a spectacle than an information-gathering session. W and B brought camera crews along, LeBron planned an hour-long decision special. These guys could not have come off as more arrogant.

Is this a change of the guard? The players now being in control instead of the owners? If it is, it may be fleeting with a lockout looming and the final Heat product not yet court- and playoff-tested. On the one hand it's a sea change to see players "creating" their own teams rather than letting GMs call the shots. Yes, stars have whined their ways into better situations before, but never have they colluded to create a potential champion like this. A star may join an already solid squad looking to re-up (see Malone and Payton or Barkley and Pippen or Artest on the Lakers), but never have 2 big stars decided to join a third like this. I would say it's refreshing if it didn't tilt the playing field so far in their favor. The only team I see seriously competing them is the Lakers. The Magic and Celtics could too, maybe the Thunder or the Jazz, maybe the Sixers or the Bobcats magically match up well. But really, all I'm thinking is that there will be 1-3 years of the Lakers challenging this squad followed by some years of outright dominance.

People say they can't play together: they're crazy. People say it won't work: it will. The big questions are: do these guys have what it takes to win it all? (LeBron especially) and Will they be willing to do the dirty work to get there or will they all loaf around expecting the others to pick up the slack?

There are some obstacles: the team may be stuck as is due to present or future salary-cap restrictions. The team won't be able to re-up much via draft. It will not have many trade chips for improvement. Wade in particular may get injured (see 2007 Heat squad) thus making this team that much more beatable.

In my mind, though it's LeBron's choice to go wherever he pleases, on the grounds of competition I don't like this arrangement. I never liked "mercenary" teams like the 2006 Heat that attracted every washed-up star looking to snag a ring. I like squads like the old Pistons, the Thunder and the Suns that add pieces but maintain continuity. Part of the joy of being a fan is seeing your team develop players (like Jrue Holiday). The attachment to free agents is always tenuous (see Elton Brand or Jevon Kearse) and, to be honest, most free agent signings do not pan out. The last time a Florida team tried to construct a champion using free agency it worked out miserably: the Grant Hill-Tracy McGrady Magic were always hobbled and the two stars rarely saw the court together. Still, even on paper, the team wasn't the top in the NBA (like the new Heat look like).

The best scenario that can come of this will be an NBA that is even more top-team-oriented with 3 or 4 All-Star teams competing with 26 mediocre squads. The new collective bargaining agreement may in fact crystallize the current layout since teams will presumably have much less to spend on free agents and I don't see incentives to keep your own guys (Bird Rights) going away.

I think if the process had been less manufactured and more candid, we may even be cheering the Three Kings rather than wringing our hands about them. LeBron came out of this looking like a punk. Wade came out fine and Bosh came out, in Stan van Gundy's words, looking like "Wade's lapdog." That the three are looking to "have fun" and "make the game easy" is a bit disconcerting to fans who would rather see Lakers-Celtics than Globetrotters-Generals. Further in a league that has become increasingly talent-diluted, the new Heat should be able to kill on most nights. I think most fans were angling for a Bosh-Wade Heat and a LeBron-Rose-Noah Bulls or a LeBron-Amare Knicks. That would have been something to get excited about. An All-Star team yukking it up against the Sixers might produce some Sportscenter clips but not any scintillating basketball.

NBA Preview

Here's a quick prediction for the future season:

In the East the playoff seedings will be:

1) Orlando Magic--I think they'll put up the best record behind an improved Dwight Howard, a recommitted Rashard Lewis, and a desire to grab regular season top-honor's.
2) Miami Heat--They'll win a lot of laughers, have some mid- or early-season troubles and maybe cool off a bit during stretches when they wanna rest their stars for the playoffs. I could see them being as low as a four-seed, though they may not wanna be in the top-seeds bracket.
3) Boston Celtics--They could challenge the Heat if everything goes right.
4) Atlanta Hawks--same team, dangerous in the regular season but won't go far.
5) Milwaukee Bucks--super-sleeper team now that they'll have a healty Bogut, Corey Maggette, and some other nice additions (Gooden, Larry Sanders) to add to Brandon Jennings. This could be a trouble "team" for Miami.
6) Chicago Bulls--with Boozer, Rose, and Noah they will be a very good squad. I could see them rising as high as the number 3 seed.
7) Philadelphia 76ers--one can hope, right? I could see them having a promising but not playoff-bound season or competing for a spot. I was considering putting New York here but I think their roster is still malformed, Amare will get hurt, and things will continue to go downhill. If the Sixers make it, that would mean that Turner and Iguodala have great seasons (or Iggy moves out for something decent), Holiday and Young improve, and Brand won't suck. As I said before, this spot could easily go to Indiana, New York or Charlotte.
8) Cleveland Cavaliers--they could be terrible, but I'm going out on a limb here and saying that they will be a nice, veteran squad and Byron Scott will get them to play hard.

Crappy teams: Raptors will be abysmal, Nets will be more respectable but bad, Bobcats will be worse though they'll compete for a playoff spot, Wiz will be much-improved with Wall but must deal Arenas for front-court help before they can make a jump, Pacers will be ok again, Pistons won't be great.

East Playoffs: Magic beat Cavs, Heat beat Sixers, Celtics beat Bulls (toss-up), Bucks beat Hawks (this time). Round two: Bucks beat Magic (in a tight one), Heat beat Celtics (in a tight one). ECF: Bucks (or Magic) scare Heat but Heat win (though my heart says Bucks or Magic beat Heat, I don't think either team has the talent when one is relying on Vince Carter and the other on Corey Maggette).

West:

1) Lakers--should be dominant. Big worry as always: Bynum's health and PG position.
2) Mavs--super deep with Haywood and Chandler in the middle. Potential team to knock off the Heat (wouldn't that be beautiful irony?).
3) Jazz--I think Al Jefferson could be a great addition.
4) Thunder--not as into Cole Aldrich as Sam Presti is, but Durant, Westbrook, and Harden will improve. So will Ibaka. This team can be sick. Can be the future-team to knock off Heat and Lakers. (Mavs may be the present one).
5) Spurs--Splitter should improve them. Sleeper team just like last year.
6) Blazers--another really deep squad building from the ground up. If Oden's healthy, watch out.
7) Rockets--could shoot up if Yao is healthy. Really nice building job by Morey.
8) Suns--can't count out Steve Nash. Last year before the season I thought they'd do great. This year, I think they could be very good or implode. No Amare a big question-mark.

Crappy teams: Warriors will be abysmal, Wolves have some pieces but roster is a mess (need Rubio), LA Clippers have talent but Baron is getting older and they're never healthy, Kings will be very good (Cousins may make Sixers fans wish we got him), Grizzlies will compete for a playoff spot (could get number 8), Nuggets could easily get a spot if Yao is unhealthy, Blazers have issues or Suns take a step-back, I'm just not into their lack of depth and think the West is stacked.

West Playoffs: Lakers beat Suns, Mavs beat Rockets, Blazers beat Jazz, Thunder beat Spurs. Round 2: Lakers barely beat Thunder (their year is the year after next), Mavs beat Blazers.
WCF: Lakers beat Mavs.

Championship: Lakers v. Heat (duh). Heat will want it a lot. If Lakers are healthy though, I think their cohesion and experience will win it. Phil will ride off into the sunset. Fisher may retire. The Heat will look to add a center and some more role-players in a bid to meet the Thunder in the 2012 Finals.

NBA Free Agency

So what will happen?

Here's what we (think we) know:

1. Joe Johnson will re-sign for a ridiculous contract with Atlanta.
2. Rudy Gay will do the same with Memphis.
3. Sounds like Amare Stoudemire will go to New York.
4. Pierce and Nowitzki will re-sign with their teams.
   

That leaves the big guns: LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. Plus some decent other pieces: Boozer, David Lee.

1. I'm guessing David Lee goes somewhere like New Jersey.
2. LeBron has a few good options: stay with Clev., move to Chicago, move to Miami, outside shot: NJ/NY. My guess is that he does not want to go to a broken down Knicks team nor a rebuilding NJ outfit. Miami doesn't have many players but he could team up with Wade there and create a team on the fly--ultimately I don't see him "going to Wade's team." That leaves Chicago and Cleveland. I don't think he would mesh that well with Derrick Rose, but that may be beside the point. Rose is way better than Mo Williams. Noah is better than Varejao. The Cavs have a bunch of other role players, the Bulls can create the same thing. The Cavs do have more money to offer and I think a coach and town that LeBron prefers.
3. Scenario 1: LeBron re-signs with Cleveland; that means Bosh and Wade I think go to either Miami or Chicago together (LeBron may regret this given that Chicago would thus destroy Cleveland).
4. Scenario 2: LeBron moves to Chicago, Bosh signs on too. Wade and Boozer go to Miami. Cleveland a shell of itself. NY/NJ gather players like Iguodala and Al Jefferson in salary dump trades and improve somewhat.

Those scenarios assumed that LeBron is moving things. But all three players have a choice. Still, they all could get hurt by being first-movers. Why? Look at what happened when Elton Brand marooned Baron Davis in Clipperland. The last mover will get the most information in this game and benefits the most (at least this summer). Bosh is positioning himself this way as a complimentary player for either LeBron or Wade. That said, I think L and W could screw him if they went to a team like Miami together. That's assuming that no team can sign all 3 to money that they find reasonable (a fair assumption). So let's look at Wade next:

1. Realistically, he's looking at two destinations: Chicago and Miami. If he re-signs with Miami, he needs to either get Bosh or LeBron there too, or at worst someone like Boozer (which would help only somewhat).
2. He could go to the Bulls, though I think that him and Rose have very similar games. Really, Bosh would help the Bulls the most. But, here again, the Bulls assure him of being on a better team.

Now Bosh could go in a few directions. He's not going to Toronto. He's not going to NY/NJ. He could go to Miami or Chicago or do his own thing via sign-and-trade to Houston (or LA Lakers).

1. If he sign-and-trades to Houston (or LAL), he's on a great or solid team. LeBron could then safely re-sign with Cleveland or go to Bulls. Wade could then go back to Miami with perhaps Boozer (and/or a salary dump guy like Granger, Iguodala, Al Jefferson) or go to the Bulls himself.
2. If Bosh moves first to Miami or Chicago, he forces the other two to think fast. Do they all go with him and take less money? If Wade and Bosh go to Miami, maybe LeBron teams up with Rose in Chicago or does his own thing. Wade and Bosh in Chicago forces LeBron to go to NY/NJ/Cleveland.
3. Bosh can wait and see what LeBron and Wade do and then choose. The thing is, they will want him to decide who he wants to go with (LeBron or Wade). Reportedly, and I don't blame him, Bosh does not want to go to Cleveland.

OK, let's sort things out:

1. All of the free agents have a semi-sure thing in Chicago. Best option for LeBron, Wade AND Bosh is to go there from a roster/winning perspective.
2. The logical choice then is for LeBron and Bosh to team up in Chicago. What then for Wade? He could try to lure Boozer and other guys like Mike Miller, Brad Miller, Richard Jefferson to Miami and form a decent veteran team. He could also go to NJ or NY. Or, he could take a big pay cut and go to Chicago. Unlikely.
3. LeBron's emotions may dictate that he stay in Cleveland. This would mean that Wade and Bosh could go to Miami (Wade's strong preference), and we'd have a decent playing field for all of the Eastern Conference. Good Cleveland team, solid Chicago team (they could add Boozer and some other guys), very good Miami team.
4. If Wade is serious about going to Chicago, he could throw a wrench in things. He and Bosh could go there together and form a super team with Rose OR he and LeBron could join forces there (LeBron wouldn't have to worry about joining "Wade's team" in this scenario). If he and Bosh signed with Chicago, then LeBron's best bet would be to go back to Cleveland or try to see what sort of squad NY or NJ can put together. If LeBron and Wade join Chicago (crazy, I know), then Bosh could go to NY or NJ--this scenario would destroy both Miami and Cleveland.

OK, so what are the conclusions, here?:

1. If the other guys are really waiting for LeBron, then he will be wise to choose Chicago and join with Wade or Bosh, this assures him the best money/team combination.
2. Chicago will then be the top team in the East and can rival the Lakers.
3. Whomever does not join LeBron in Chicago (I'm guessing Wade), will be able to form a decent squad in Miami or NY/NJ out of veteran free agents and salary dumps.
4. Wade and Bosh could preempt LeBron and screw him, but wherever he goes that team will be good. And, honestly, Wade and Rose or Wade/LeBron/Rose would be super-redundant.
5. LeBron could just go to Cleveland, but it would prove unwise because Chicago and Miami would be better teams (though a Wade/Bosh Miami team with little else would be beatable). Still, whatever team LeBron goes to will be excellent, so he won't be screwed if he goes to Cleveland unless Wade and Bosh team up on Chicago (which I think would not be Wade's preference, he'd prefer to bring Bosh to Miami).

Two big scenarios then are: LeBron and Bosh to Chicago (potential championship team), with Wade and others to Miami; AND LeBron to Cleveland, Wade and Bosh to Miami, Chicago fills with other veterans. In the unlikely scenario that Bosh chooses LAL or Houston, then Chicago/Miami team-up options become less attractive and either LeBron re-signs with Cle or he and Wade team up somewhere (most likely Chicago).

I've been waiting for someone to break it down. So I just did it myself.