My thoughts on the am azing Bynum deal...
First of all: I thought this deal was pure FICTION when I first read it. I mean, swapping Iguodala and some other stuff the Sixers didn't need/want for Andrew Bynum?! It reeked of the GM just floating something out to get in the press. When it happened, my head was spinning.
I've read a lot since on the trade. The overall opinion of the trade seems to be that the Sixers did very well (while the Lakers and Nuggets did even better). ESPN.com has been perhaps most negative on the deal (though Bill Simmons thought it was a great move). Those that are lukewarm feel that the Sixers took two steps back and two steps forward this summer and may be at a similar place. They focus on the Brand, Lou and Iguodala losses.
To be honest, the summer acquisitions had me confused--particularly after signing Kwame Brown to a 2 year 6 million dollar deal. I liked that Elton Brand was gone and I think that those who poo-poo that move are dense. Brand was not playing well in his last year as a Sixer. Let me rephrase that: he was nowhere near at the level of his contract. Last year he averaged 11 points and 7 boards (plus 1.6 blocks). 11 points! So I don't know where this "irreplaceable" nonsense is coming from. To be frank, an optimistic projection on Lavoy Allen might have him averaging similar numbers.
Signing Kwame Brown and Nick Young (whose a chucker on a one year contract) with the money was crap. But, I do like Dorrell Wright.
Now, losing Lou Williams looks worse than it did earlier in the summer. The team has no back-up PG (well, Maalik Wayns). It also could use a slasher-scorer type like Lou. But Lou went to Atlanta and, according to Doug Collins, the Sixers offered him some deals he didn't end up liking.
Iguodala is certainly a big loss. He was the defensive identity of the team. But his attitude is kind of sucky and whiney--and, again, he was no scorer. In '07-'08 he put up 19.9 points, but that average was down to 12.4 last year. So, with Brand and Iguodala, you were shipping out an underwhelming 23.4 points per game, which I think Bynum by himself could average.
Losing Harkless--who the hype said could eventually be special-- and Vucevic--who almost certainly won't be-- is just the cost of doing business. The first round pick is too.
So, yes, the roster is now misshapen. Yes, I don't think the Sixers were brilliant earlier in the off-season. BUT... the Bynum deal was the best trade I've ever seen the Sixers get.
Review the last time the Sixers traded for a true, capable big man: The Mutombo trade. They gave Theo Ratliff (who was blocking everything... but hurt), Toni Kukoc (who was playing well), and Nazr Mohammed (a decent center). That's two very good players and one decent one. Here the Sixers gave a very good player in Iguodala, two decent prospects (who knows what they'll become?), and a pick for A MUCH BETTER CENTER who is 25 years old!!!!
Bynum instantly makes the Sixers a team with purpose. He is a cornerstone. You can get some shooters and defenders to put around him. Getting that big center piece is so critical to NBA success because so few players fit that bill. Last year Bynum averaged 19, 12, and almost 2 blocks. That's 4 points, 2 rebounds, and a fraction of a block less than Brand and Iguodala COMBINED. Think about that: he's one guy whose averaging what your two main guys got together. And he was on a team with two other All-Stars. On the Sixers? Going for 23 and 12 is doable. Could happen.
As for the rest of the roster and how he fits: I think this year could be a transition year but I think this does a few things for the Sixers:
1. They now look like a definite playoff team, before the deal they didn't.
2. Now they can swap out some of their center depth for something else they need (maybe a PF or PG) during the year.
3. The Sixers will be able to compete every night.
4. They no longer look like a worse version of the Pacers. They look like a team with more potential and a more balanced and exciting roster than Brooklyn or New York.
5. The Sixers will be WATCHABLE. I was worried that they were going south after such a great season last year, but this team will be exciting.
6. For the first time I can remember, the Sixers will play NBA inside-out basketball with 3-point shooters and a center. You know, the type of basketball you see in June not in November.
As for the trade, great kudos to the Sixers on making a move that this cynical fan never saw coming. Getting Andrew Bynum for Iguodala is a crazy get. Remember that when Allen Iverson went out what came back was Joe Smith, Andre Miller (who stayed for a while) and 2 first rounders that amounted to not-much. Here, Iguodala goes to the same team (Denver) and you get back one of the best centers in the game. The only way this was even remotely possible was because Dwight Howard wanted to move. Otherwise the Lakers hang up if anyone wants their dominant, young center.
Amazing, amazing trade.
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Friday, July 13, 2012
Ug.
Sixers signed Kwame Brown today to a (potentially) 2 year deal. No great way to spin it.
...and supposedly DC wants to start Spencer Hawes at the 4?! (and I'm assuming Kwame at the 5).
Well, if it doesn't work, he'll surely realize pretty fast.
Why not... CARL LANDRY or ANYONE OTHER THAN KWAME BROWN??!!!
...and supposedly DC wants to start Spencer Hawes at the 4?! (and I'm assuming Kwame at the 5).
Well, if it doesn't work, he'll surely realize pretty fast.
Why not... CARL LANDRY or ANYONE OTHER THAN KWAME BROWN??!!!
Thursday, July 12, 2012
West Too-Early Predictions
1 OKC (Gotta put 'em here... but I do think there's a possibility they slip a little)
2 LA Lakers (they could be real killers)
3 San Antonio (they're adding some more international flavor in De Colo and Lorbek and reupping Diaw plus still have Duncan/Parker/Ginobili/SJax, etc.... they'll be in the mix)
4 Memphis (they've got a good squad)
5 LA Clippers (if Billups is healthy, this team will be very good again)
6 Denver (JaVale plus runners... could be very good or miss playoffs)
7 Utah (Jefferson/Millsap/Marvin Williams/Hayward/Mo Williams plus...)
8 Golden State (if Bogut is healthy, this team will surprise a lot of people. Steph Curry/Barnes/Klay Thompson/David Lee/Bogut with RJ on bench. Wow)
9 Minnesota (they could be 7 actually... it's all about Love and Rubio staying healthy. Like Budinger addition. Really wanna find a playoff spot for them but it'll be a fight)
10 Sacramento (with Thomas Robinson/Cousins/Tyreke and crew they will be tough to beat... but young and messy)
11 Blazers (no real concept of who they are anymore)
12 Dallas (Collison is nice, but who else do they have to pair with Nowitzki?)
13 New Orleans (like Ryan Anderson/Gordon/Anthony Davis but they will be young and unproven)
14 Houston (they will be looking to trade. Otherwise, they'll be real young)
15 Phoenix (bleh)
Contenders:
East: Miami, Chicago, Brooklyn, Boston
West: OKC, LA Lakers, San Antonio
2 LA Lakers (they could be real killers)
3 San Antonio (they're adding some more international flavor in De Colo and Lorbek and reupping Diaw plus still have Duncan/Parker/Ginobili/SJax, etc.... they'll be in the mix)
4 Memphis (they've got a good squad)
5 LA Clippers (if Billups is healthy, this team will be very good again)
6 Denver (JaVale plus runners... could be very good or miss playoffs)
7 Utah (Jefferson/Millsap/Marvin Williams/Hayward/Mo Williams plus...)
8 Golden State (if Bogut is healthy, this team will surprise a lot of people. Steph Curry/Barnes/Klay Thompson/David Lee/Bogut with RJ on bench. Wow)
9 Minnesota (they could be 7 actually... it's all about Love and Rubio staying healthy. Like Budinger addition. Really wanna find a playoff spot for them but it'll be a fight)
10 Sacramento (with Thomas Robinson/Cousins/Tyreke and crew they will be tough to beat... but young and messy)
11 Blazers (no real concept of who they are anymore)
12 Dallas (Collison is nice, but who else do they have to pair with Nowitzki?)
13 New Orleans (like Ryan Anderson/Gordon/Anthony Davis but they will be young and unproven)
14 Houston (they will be looking to trade. Otherwise, they'll be real young)
15 Phoenix (bleh)
Contenders:
East: Miami, Chicago, Brooklyn, Boston
West: OKC, LA Lakers, San Antonio
More Free Agency Notes
On the Rockets. They're getting rid of Scola now? Basically, the Rockets are the perfect team to trade a big vet to. They've got picks, young players, cap space. They dumped their two best players: Lowry (for a first) and Scola (for nothin'). The funny thing is their dream is to basically swap teams with Orlando since the Magic are insisting on dumping a million crap-contracts on whomever wants Dwight Howard. So a Rockets- Magic deal will look something like this: Dwight, Q Richardson, Duhon, and J Richardson for Terrence Jones, Donatas Montiejunas, Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lamb, and 2 1st round picks. The Rockets could then have basically the same team as the Magic with maybe a few more green sprouts (young guys). And were the Magic that good? Not really.
On the Knicks. At least the Sixers are building through youth. Amare is already cooked (or semi-cooked). Melo gets worse every year. Chandler is good. Shumpert is a revelation. Kidd and Camby? This team is destined for a string of out-in-the-second-round runs.
On the Nets. Like what BK just did by taking on Joe Johnson. We'll wait a year before he gets killed for signing Wallace to a $10 mil/year deal, Lopez to a virtual max contract, and taking on Joe Johnson (the biggest contract signed in the last 5 years). They will compete. But how much better will they be? They basically are adding Gerald Wallace, Mirza Teletovic, Reggie Evans, and Joe Johnson to last years team. Those are solid additions, but they're not gonna be contenders (I think). And this is their team for the foreseeable future. Still, it's top-3 in the East: Deron/JJ/Wallace/Hump (presumably)/Lopez with Teletovic/Evans/rooks on the bench. Actually, if Wallace plays up to his potential (Charlotte days) and Lopez improves, this team could be very, very good.
On the Lakers. Love the Nash signing. How many more years does he have left? At least one or two, right?
Top East teams: 1 Miami (love Ray Allen signing... I mean, I don't love it, but it does scare me);
2 Chicago (they're being written off; but they were 1 last year and I think they'll tread water well until Rose returns);
3 Brooklyn (will be much improved)
4 Indiana (better version of the Sixers imho with Hibbert/Granger/George/G. Hill, etc. Maybe this is too high for them but they looked good last year)
5 Boston (reupping and really like Terry signing...can't believe people kept saying Big 3 when Rondo was their best player)
6 New York (don't love 'em, but they'll make playoffs)
7 Sixers (almost put 'em at 6 for the heck of it... though, they could easily miss playoffs)
8 Atlanta (with Lou, Horford, and Josh Smith...they should be ok)
9 Washington (I think they put it together this year with Wall/Nene/Okafor/Beal/Ariza and a fair bench)
10 Milwaukee (Dalembert a fair add; don't think Monta/Jennings backcourt will be good on D)
11 Toronto (will be much improved with Lowry and Valanciunas, who is supposedly a stud)
12 Orlando (with or without Dwight, I don't have high hopes)
13 Cleveland (nice squad... like Irving... will be fine)
14 Detroit (Maggette and Drummond are fine adds but the team is still not great)
15 Charlotte (they will still suck)
continued...
On the Knicks. At least the Sixers are building through youth. Amare is already cooked (or semi-cooked). Melo gets worse every year. Chandler is good. Shumpert is a revelation. Kidd and Camby? This team is destined for a string of out-in-the-second-round runs.
On the Nets. Like what BK just did by taking on Joe Johnson. We'll wait a year before he gets killed for signing Wallace to a $10 mil/year deal, Lopez to a virtual max contract, and taking on Joe Johnson (the biggest contract signed in the last 5 years). They will compete. But how much better will they be? They basically are adding Gerald Wallace, Mirza Teletovic, Reggie Evans, and Joe Johnson to last years team. Those are solid additions, but they're not gonna be contenders (I think). And this is their team for the foreseeable future. Still, it's top-3 in the East: Deron/JJ/Wallace/Hump (presumably)/Lopez with Teletovic/Evans/rooks on the bench. Actually, if Wallace plays up to his potential (Charlotte days) and Lopez improves, this team could be very, very good.
On the Lakers. Love the Nash signing. How many more years does he have left? At least one or two, right?
Top East teams: 1 Miami (love Ray Allen signing... I mean, I don't love it, but it does scare me);
2 Chicago (they're being written off; but they were 1 last year and I think they'll tread water well until Rose returns);
3 Brooklyn (will be much improved)
4 Indiana (better version of the Sixers imho with Hibbert/Granger/George/G. Hill, etc. Maybe this is too high for them but they looked good last year)
5 Boston (reupping and really like Terry signing...can't believe people kept saying Big 3 when Rondo was their best player)
6 New York (don't love 'em, but they'll make playoffs)
7 Sixers (almost put 'em at 6 for the heck of it... though, they could easily miss playoffs)
8 Atlanta (with Lou, Horford, and Josh Smith...they should be ok)
9 Washington (I think they put it together this year with Wall/Nene/Okafor/Beal/Ariza and a fair bench)
10 Milwaukee (Dalembert a fair add; don't think Monta/Jennings backcourt will be good on D)
11 Toronto (will be much improved with Lowry and Valanciunas, who is supposedly a stud)
12 Orlando (with or without Dwight, I don't have high hopes)
13 Cleveland (nice squad... like Irving... will be fine)
14 Detroit (Maggette and Drummond are fine adds but the team is still not great)
15 Charlotte (they will still suck)
continued...
Free Agency and Sixers
My assumption going into free agency that the Sixers would probably sign Lavoy Allen, let Spencer Hawes go, and let the chips fall where they may with Lou Williams. I also assumed that Elton Brand would stay because: he adds a veteran presence, his expiring contract might be worth something during the season, and the team wouldn't want to eat his salary.
So far, I've been wrong about a bunch of things.
ESPN analyst John Hollinger has characterized the Sixers' front office as flying by the seat of their pants. His evidence rests on a few key pieces of evidence. First, he says that the Sixers should have signed Lavoy Allen to a deal that included options for subsequent years after year one. He says every team does this and it's bizarre that the Sixers didn't. Second, he says that this Lavoy mistake led to the amnestying of Brand so the Sixers could open up cap space for Nick Young that they would've had if Lavoy were under a cheapo second-round pick contract. Then, he sees the additions of Nick Young and Dorell Wright and the subtractions of Lou and EB and thinks he sees a team without a plan.
Sixers' co-owner Adam Aron has tweeted that they do have a plan and that their moves have been known internally for awhile--they just got reported as journalists sniffed out the details.
I don't know if the team has a plan or not. I know we have a good coach and I know some solid pieces have been added--and some vets jettisoned. The big thing will be whether they trade Iguodala--something I'm against b/c of Ig's defensive prowess. If Iguodala is gone, the team is clearly looking to build up again--a mini-rebuild--through youth.
Let's look at the moves:
Sixers re-sign Lavoy Allen (2 yrs) and Spencer Hawes (2 yrs). Hawes still has potential and, I think, Allen has more than fulfilled his. Both got fair deals: Hawes about 6.5mil per year, Allen about 2.5 mil per year. Billy King would've signed Hawes to a 50 mil deal no doubt. I like the length and reasonableness of the contracts. Allen will hopefully be a solid bench player. Hawes will hopefully have the incentive to get better with his short contract. The team desperately needs a shot-blocker! Fine moves value-wise.
Sixers amnesty/waive Elton Brand for cap space. A few thoughts here: one, this is a total Chris Webber situation where Brand will go to a solid veteran team (like Dallas) and start putting up numbers (15 and 8?). But watching the playoffs last year, it was obvious that Brand is more or less done. In the least he's a total waste of money on this team when Lavoy Allen (except for with his defensive lapses) more or less replicated Brand's production when the games mattered most. 11 points, 7 rebs, 1.5 blocks is decent but not worth breaking the bank. Put it this way: it's conceivable that Arnett Moultrie puts up similar numbers this year and he was an end of the first round draft pick. Brand did bring attitude and character and experience. But, he was gone next year anyway. This move fast-forwards things a bit and let's the team see what they really have. As Chad Ford said: in the short term it will hurt. So for one year they may be slightly worse than they would've been, but they'll get to give their young bigs experience. Nice move.
Sixers let Lou sign with the Hawks. Web sites are phrasing it as the Sixers "gave" EB and Lou for Dorell Wright and Nick Young. That's not the case. EB was gone this year or next anyway. They DID however replace Lou with Nick Young. Lou was too short in the playoffs. Against the Celtics he was not very useful. He played spotty. I think from a cap perspective this was the right move. Don't overpay this guy and lock yourself in. See what else is out there.
Sixers sign Nick Young (1 yr) and trade for Dorell Wright (1 yr left on contract). I really like Dorell Wright. Let's remember that the year before last he led the NBA in 3pters made and taken. He can shoot it. He's also big enough to conceivably play both forward positions. Nick Young was a bit of a loose cannon on the Wiz, but when he got hot in LA (or Washington) he was smokin'. He can't move the ball like Lou can, but the Sixers had enough guys to dribble (ET, Jrue, Ig) last year and no spot up shooters (save Lavoy and Spencer). These two will allow the Sixers to slash and space the floor. Imagine a lineup with Jrue, ET, Young, Wright, and Thad. Or Jrue, Ig, ET, Dorell, and Lavoy. There's floor spacing, offense, speed and potentially defense.
So, let's move on to possible depth charts and whether future moves are possible.
Here is the Sixers best defensive 5 as it stands: Jrue/ET/Ig/Thad/Lavoy (yes, that frontcourt is weak)
Here is their best offensive 5: Jrue/ET/Young/Dorell/Thad.
Both line-ups are a stretch, so let's look at a possible depth chart.
C: Hawes/Vucevic/Moultrie
PF: Thad Young/Lavoy/Moultrie
SF: Iguodala/Wright/Harkless
SG: Turner/Young
PG: Holiday/Turner
That depth chart actually captures 11 players! I do think that the idea is to have ET play backup point guard. I think that Young may even start (or Wright) playing the former Meeks role.
With no changes, the starters could be Hawes/Thad or Moultrie/Ig/Young/Jrue leaving a bench of Vucevic/Thad or Moultrie/Wright/Harkless/ET. That's a pretty sick bench. I put Moultrie in as a starter because he can rebound. The starters with Ig, Young, Jrue, Moultrie, and Hawes are actually pretty dynamic and including shooting, slashing, D, and rebounding. The second unit with ET/Harkless/Wright/Thad/Vucevic/Lavoy would probably beat any other NBA team's second unit.
The issues I see foremost are with the frontcourt. Lavoy and Vucevic are decent backups. Hawes is fine but unless he improves a lot he's a marginally good starting center. There is no real PF. I'm assuming a rookie (Moultrie) will start at PF because I think Thad and Spencer as starters would be way too undersized and would lack rebounding. Brand would've helped but he doesn't move the dial that much. Would trading Ig for a good PF help? Someone like Millsap might. There are two angles here: either Moultrie/Lavoy/Vuc/Hawes improve or they bring someone in. They can bring someone in next year with cap space (when Young and Wright's deals expire) or trade Iguodala.
If you trade Ig for a PF, the lineups do look cleaner. Let's say, the Sixers trade Ig for Paul Millsap or Pau Gasol.
Then you've got:
C Hawes; PF Gasol/Millsap; SF Wright; SG Tuner; PG Holiday still with a good bench of: Nick Young, Thad Young, Lavoy, Harkless, and Vucevic.
I think I just convinced myself to trade Iguodala. Ha ha.
So far, I've been wrong about a bunch of things.
ESPN analyst John Hollinger has characterized the Sixers' front office as flying by the seat of their pants. His evidence rests on a few key pieces of evidence. First, he says that the Sixers should have signed Lavoy Allen to a deal that included options for subsequent years after year one. He says every team does this and it's bizarre that the Sixers didn't. Second, he says that this Lavoy mistake led to the amnestying of Brand so the Sixers could open up cap space for Nick Young that they would've had if Lavoy were under a cheapo second-round pick contract. Then, he sees the additions of Nick Young and Dorell Wright and the subtractions of Lou and EB and thinks he sees a team without a plan.
Sixers' co-owner Adam Aron has tweeted that they do have a plan and that their moves have been known internally for awhile--they just got reported as journalists sniffed out the details.
I don't know if the team has a plan or not. I know we have a good coach and I know some solid pieces have been added--and some vets jettisoned. The big thing will be whether they trade Iguodala--something I'm against b/c of Ig's defensive prowess. If Iguodala is gone, the team is clearly looking to build up again--a mini-rebuild--through youth.
Let's look at the moves:
Sixers re-sign Lavoy Allen (2 yrs) and Spencer Hawes (2 yrs). Hawes still has potential and, I think, Allen has more than fulfilled his. Both got fair deals: Hawes about 6.5mil per year, Allen about 2.5 mil per year. Billy King would've signed Hawes to a 50 mil deal no doubt. I like the length and reasonableness of the contracts. Allen will hopefully be a solid bench player. Hawes will hopefully have the incentive to get better with his short contract. The team desperately needs a shot-blocker! Fine moves value-wise.
Sixers amnesty/waive Elton Brand for cap space. A few thoughts here: one, this is a total Chris Webber situation where Brand will go to a solid veteran team (like Dallas) and start putting up numbers (15 and 8?). But watching the playoffs last year, it was obvious that Brand is more or less done. In the least he's a total waste of money on this team when Lavoy Allen (except for with his defensive lapses) more or less replicated Brand's production when the games mattered most. 11 points, 7 rebs, 1.5 blocks is decent but not worth breaking the bank. Put it this way: it's conceivable that Arnett Moultrie puts up similar numbers this year and he was an end of the first round draft pick. Brand did bring attitude and character and experience. But, he was gone next year anyway. This move fast-forwards things a bit and let's the team see what they really have. As Chad Ford said: in the short term it will hurt. So for one year they may be slightly worse than they would've been, but they'll get to give their young bigs experience. Nice move.
Sixers let Lou sign with the Hawks. Web sites are phrasing it as the Sixers "gave" EB and Lou for Dorell Wright and Nick Young. That's not the case. EB was gone this year or next anyway. They DID however replace Lou with Nick Young. Lou was too short in the playoffs. Against the Celtics he was not very useful. He played spotty. I think from a cap perspective this was the right move. Don't overpay this guy and lock yourself in. See what else is out there.
Sixers sign Nick Young (1 yr) and trade for Dorell Wright (1 yr left on contract). I really like Dorell Wright. Let's remember that the year before last he led the NBA in 3pters made and taken. He can shoot it. He's also big enough to conceivably play both forward positions. Nick Young was a bit of a loose cannon on the Wiz, but when he got hot in LA (or Washington) he was smokin'. He can't move the ball like Lou can, but the Sixers had enough guys to dribble (ET, Jrue, Ig) last year and no spot up shooters (save Lavoy and Spencer). These two will allow the Sixers to slash and space the floor. Imagine a lineup with Jrue, ET, Young, Wright, and Thad. Or Jrue, Ig, ET, Dorell, and Lavoy. There's floor spacing, offense, speed and potentially defense.
So, let's move on to possible depth charts and whether future moves are possible.
Here is the Sixers best defensive 5 as it stands: Jrue/ET/Ig/Thad/Lavoy (yes, that frontcourt is weak)
Here is their best offensive 5: Jrue/ET/Young/Dorell/Thad.
Both line-ups are a stretch, so let's look at a possible depth chart.
C: Hawes/Vucevic/Moultrie
PF: Thad Young/Lavoy/Moultrie
SF: Iguodala/Wright/Harkless
SG: Turner/Young
PG: Holiday/Turner
That depth chart actually captures 11 players! I do think that the idea is to have ET play backup point guard. I think that Young may even start (or Wright) playing the former Meeks role.
With no changes, the starters could be Hawes/Thad or Moultrie/Ig/Young/Jrue leaving a bench of Vucevic/Thad or Moultrie/Wright/Harkless/ET. That's a pretty sick bench. I put Moultrie in as a starter because he can rebound. The starters with Ig, Young, Jrue, Moultrie, and Hawes are actually pretty dynamic and including shooting, slashing, D, and rebounding. The second unit with ET/Harkless/Wright/Thad/Vucevic/Lavoy would probably beat any other NBA team's second unit.
The issues I see foremost are with the frontcourt. Lavoy and Vucevic are decent backups. Hawes is fine but unless he improves a lot he's a marginally good starting center. There is no real PF. I'm assuming a rookie (Moultrie) will start at PF because I think Thad and Spencer as starters would be way too undersized and would lack rebounding. Brand would've helped but he doesn't move the dial that much. Would trading Ig for a good PF help? Someone like Millsap might. There are two angles here: either Moultrie/Lavoy/Vuc/Hawes improve or they bring someone in. They can bring someone in next year with cap space (when Young and Wright's deals expire) or trade Iguodala.
If you trade Ig for a PF, the lineups do look cleaner. Let's say, the Sixers trade Ig for Paul Millsap or Pau Gasol.
Then you've got:
C Hawes; PF Gasol/Millsap; SF Wright; SG Tuner; PG Holiday still with a good bench of: Nick Young, Thad Young, Lavoy, Harkless, and Vucevic.
I think I just convinced myself to trade Iguodala. Ha ha.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Game 7: Sixers-Celtics
We stand on the precipice of what could be a dramatic breakthrough for the 76ers: the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals.
Though prognosticators have already looked past this Game 7 assuming that the Celtics will meet the Heat in the ECF, the possibility, though surely unlikely, that the Sixers will somehow make it to round 3 of the playoff must be dealt with.
How did we get here?
The season began as a blur. The Sixers dominating the division and holding the 3rd seed in the playoffs until a late swoon that sent them sideways. This has been the story of the team: at times a well-oiled machine, at others completely useless.
The bad times give us a window into what needs improvements. And during those stretches, like the long stretches in the Celtics series when the Sixers offense looked absolutely catatonic, we see: the need for a go-to scorer, a lack of shooting, a lack of a post-up game, and almost no knowledge of halfcourt basketball.
The good times evince a team that has a lot of "balance": meaning a plethora of good not great players. In addition there's: energy, explosive fast breaks, stout, chasing defense, athleticism, and grit.
Doug Collins has done a remarkable job finding roles for these players and in the regular season it seemed like he had it down pat with Meeks starting and ET, Thad and Lou off the bench. That changed when the team started to decline and Turner got more minutes.
Turner is one of the more important enigmas on the squad. A second pick. He can dribble. He can't shoot. He shoots too much anyway. And he is long and can defend three positions. His head is always set on bobble but his commitment to the game is sound. At points in the season, it looked like he was Lebron lite or at least a more versatile Andre Iguodala. At others he seems like a rookie severely lacking in the ability to finish plays and without the best judgment.
Game 6 showed us the virtues of Lou Williams: a free agent this summer (if he indeed does opt-out). He did his best Allen Iverson impersonation in the second half. On this team, despite my usual miserliness with cap dollars that aren't even mine, he is needed--or at least someone like him is needed.
The rotation of minor stars rising to the top has been a joy to watch. Spencer Hawes looked great in the Chicago series--along with Lavoy Allen--only to fade against Boston. Thaddeus Young looked like the only guy on the team who cared during Boston's blowouts. Yet in other contests he barely registered. Lou has been way up and sometimes way off.
In the end, the team has a few knowns and more question marks. Let's deal with them now:
Free Agents. The most immediate concern will be the free agents: Lavoy Allen, Spencer Hawes, and Lou Williams. All will be unrestricted. Hawes is most likely to leave but what exists behind him? Only Nikola Vucevic and Tony Battie--two players that haven't figured into the playoff rotation at all. Hawes will probably get a rich contract from a below-the-cap team. He is a good offensive player and a young player with room to grow. My fear is that his contract demands will be too much to swallow.
Lou Williams and Lavoy Allen are more important to tie up. Lavoy because, despite his asleep defense in Game 5, is a cool, confident big man who doesn't make offensive mistakes and who has the confidence to knock down shots when they matter. Still, let's not overblow the worth of a player whose stats barely registered in the regular season. He's not the solution at Power Forward. A solid backup more like it.
Lou is a big question mark. At times he looks like the missing piece, at others he can't get going. He needs to improve and get more consistent. Someone out there will want to pay the runner-up for sixth man of the year. The Sixers should try to keep him--and their other free agents--if only because players are hard to replace given the current NBA system. Allen will stay, Spencer and Lou might not. From the player's perspective, Allen needs to stay (he's not gonna find a better role elsewhere), Lou probably wants to (his role in Philly is nice, elsewhere a backup PG may not get as much burn), and Spencer can go where he pleases.
Vets. The team really only has two vets: Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. Both get a significant amount of grief largely because they have not always played up to their paychecks. Elton Brand was a warrior in Game 6 but too often he has been a highly limited albeit serviceable big man. Any number of middle-of-the-road Jordan Hill types could replace his production--while not replacing his experience and grit. Brand is an obvious subtraction if, as the owner implied, someone else comes along that the Sixers could sign.
Andre Iguodala has emerged, amazingly, as a closer in these playoffs. Hitting crucial free throws and nailing important 3s. His defense sets the tone for the rest of the team. His attitude is a conundrum. He always seems calmly depressed. He does care about the game but he's a bit of a downer in his comments. You almost never see him excited. He takes pride in his work but seems not to want to emotionally invest in it. This is the legacy of years of trade rumors. He is offensively challenged and that is obvious for all to see. He can dunk a basketball like few others can. At this point, it will be hard for the team to justify jettisoning a player so important to the overall picture and character of the squad. That said, the argument for swapping him for a big man or a scorer does have legs.
The Young Heart. Most of the team is composed of the Young Heart (Lou and Spencer and Lavoy should be included here but I covered them already).
Everything begins with Jrue Holiday who may be the team's best player. He looks like he's 12. But he makes great decisions (most of the time), controls the tempo, can pass, defends hard, and, when he's on his offensive game, is the team's most complete offensive player. It is truly amazing that in a draft that saw Hasheem Thabeet picked second and Jonny Flynn picked sixth, Jrue Holiday fell to the seventeenth pick (this is especially so because he was in the conversation for the fourth pick!). More amazing: Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, and Darren Collison were all picked after Jrue.
Jrue is the heart of the team. He needs to become a leader and dribble less. He needs to improve his decision-making. But he is the team's best player.
Evan Turner, as previously discussed, is an enigma. He's not a bust. But his shot is generally broken. He can score at the rim. He can dribble. He can defend. Too often he thinks he's the team's go-to scorer. In the Game 4 comeback, ET shot the ball 22 times (and made just 5). He has a lot of talent and a lot of room to grow. It's unclear whether he'll become a mainstay on this team yet. He is a necessary ball handler and has good size. But he needs to improve on offense and defense for his performance to match his pedigree. One big question with him is: where do you play him? Jrue is the 1. Is ET the backup 1? The 2? A 3? All of the above? DC has done a good job letting Turner share PG responsibilities but he needs to expand his game away from just being a big, ball-hogging point to become the player he can be.
Thaddeus Young is a high energy, perfect bench player. DC gave him the right role. I don't think he can be an NBA starter--not on talent, but just on his lack of a defined position. Thad cares. He can rebound. He has energy. The contract he was given this summer is surely rich and it does imply that the Sixers want more than spot minutes for him, but I still don't see Elton Brand's replacement here. His offensive game is still too raw and he still relies heavily on energy and speed (both of which he has in abundance). He is a great backup big.
Lavoy Allen is a wonderful rotation player to have. A cool character who can hit shots. He should be kept. Spencer Hawes brings size and shooting. He fits well with the team. My assumption is that he'll be gone. Lou William is the lone true scorer. The Sixers will almost definitely do their best to keep him.
The Future? Saturday's Game 7 will determine a lot. And I don't think that this team will have the opportunity to go so far in the playoffs for a long time. It is talented but lacking in scoring and size. Chicago with Rose would have beaten them in Round 1.
The Sixers need to add another 4 or 5 in the draft and perhaps through free agency. They need another scorer even if Lou stays. They need to internally improve especially since Jrue and ET are so young.
The Indiana Pacers, who whipped the Sixers in the regular season, are a good comparison point for this team. Indy's big differentiator is size. David West and Roy Hibbert are way better than EB and Hawes. The rest of Indy's team is similar: Collison, Paul George, George Hill, Danny Granger, Hansbrough, etc. Indy may have a bit more grit and offensive firepower but Iggy is similar to (probably better than) Granger, Holiday is better than Collison and Hill, Young and Hansbrough are similar energy guys, and Paul George is certainly a step beyond ET (but the Sixers have Lou too). The Sixers are deeper than the other up-and-coming "balanced" (i.e., no superstar) team in the East, but they don't compete on size.
Amazingly, if the Sixers beat the Celtics they'd face another hardnosed defensive team that has a thin frontcourt--so the Sixers' size problem will continue to be hidden.
Philly's learned a lot during these playoffs. First and foremost, is the experience that these defensive struggles have yielded. The team seemed stuck in Atlanta Hawks-style mediocrity and has had a chance to break out of that and truly evaluate its talent. Iguodala, Jrue and Lavoy have risen to the occasion as have many others on the roster at different points (Thad, Spencer, Lou, ET, EB). The future is murky for the 76ers but as a fan the ride this season has been something to remember.
Though prognosticators have already looked past this Game 7 assuming that the Celtics will meet the Heat in the ECF, the possibility, though surely unlikely, that the Sixers will somehow make it to round 3 of the playoff must be dealt with.
How did we get here?
The season began as a blur. The Sixers dominating the division and holding the 3rd seed in the playoffs until a late swoon that sent them sideways. This has been the story of the team: at times a well-oiled machine, at others completely useless.
The bad times give us a window into what needs improvements. And during those stretches, like the long stretches in the Celtics series when the Sixers offense looked absolutely catatonic, we see: the need for a go-to scorer, a lack of shooting, a lack of a post-up game, and almost no knowledge of halfcourt basketball.
The good times evince a team that has a lot of "balance": meaning a plethora of good not great players. In addition there's: energy, explosive fast breaks, stout, chasing defense, athleticism, and grit.
Doug Collins has done a remarkable job finding roles for these players and in the regular season it seemed like he had it down pat with Meeks starting and ET, Thad and Lou off the bench. That changed when the team started to decline and Turner got more minutes.
Turner is one of the more important enigmas on the squad. A second pick. He can dribble. He can't shoot. He shoots too much anyway. And he is long and can defend three positions. His head is always set on bobble but his commitment to the game is sound. At points in the season, it looked like he was Lebron lite or at least a more versatile Andre Iguodala. At others he seems like a rookie severely lacking in the ability to finish plays and without the best judgment.
Game 6 showed us the virtues of Lou Williams: a free agent this summer (if he indeed does opt-out). He did his best Allen Iverson impersonation in the second half. On this team, despite my usual miserliness with cap dollars that aren't even mine, he is needed--or at least someone like him is needed.
The rotation of minor stars rising to the top has been a joy to watch. Spencer Hawes looked great in the Chicago series--along with Lavoy Allen--only to fade against Boston. Thaddeus Young looked like the only guy on the team who cared during Boston's blowouts. Yet in other contests he barely registered. Lou has been way up and sometimes way off.
In the end, the team has a few knowns and more question marks. Let's deal with them now:
Free Agents. The most immediate concern will be the free agents: Lavoy Allen, Spencer Hawes, and Lou Williams. All will be unrestricted. Hawes is most likely to leave but what exists behind him? Only Nikola Vucevic and Tony Battie--two players that haven't figured into the playoff rotation at all. Hawes will probably get a rich contract from a below-the-cap team. He is a good offensive player and a young player with room to grow. My fear is that his contract demands will be too much to swallow.
Lou Williams and Lavoy Allen are more important to tie up. Lavoy because, despite his asleep defense in Game 5, is a cool, confident big man who doesn't make offensive mistakes and who has the confidence to knock down shots when they matter. Still, let's not overblow the worth of a player whose stats barely registered in the regular season. He's not the solution at Power Forward. A solid backup more like it.
Lou is a big question mark. At times he looks like the missing piece, at others he can't get going. He needs to improve and get more consistent. Someone out there will want to pay the runner-up for sixth man of the year. The Sixers should try to keep him--and their other free agents--if only because players are hard to replace given the current NBA system. Allen will stay, Spencer and Lou might not. From the player's perspective, Allen needs to stay (he's not gonna find a better role elsewhere), Lou probably wants to (his role in Philly is nice, elsewhere a backup PG may not get as much burn), and Spencer can go where he pleases.
Vets. The team really only has two vets: Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. Both get a significant amount of grief largely because they have not always played up to their paychecks. Elton Brand was a warrior in Game 6 but too often he has been a highly limited albeit serviceable big man. Any number of middle-of-the-road Jordan Hill types could replace his production--while not replacing his experience and grit. Brand is an obvious subtraction if, as the owner implied, someone else comes along that the Sixers could sign.
Andre Iguodala has emerged, amazingly, as a closer in these playoffs. Hitting crucial free throws and nailing important 3s. His defense sets the tone for the rest of the team. His attitude is a conundrum. He always seems calmly depressed. He does care about the game but he's a bit of a downer in his comments. You almost never see him excited. He takes pride in his work but seems not to want to emotionally invest in it. This is the legacy of years of trade rumors. He is offensively challenged and that is obvious for all to see. He can dunk a basketball like few others can. At this point, it will be hard for the team to justify jettisoning a player so important to the overall picture and character of the squad. That said, the argument for swapping him for a big man or a scorer does have legs.
The Young Heart. Most of the team is composed of the Young Heart (Lou and Spencer and Lavoy should be included here but I covered them already).
Everything begins with Jrue Holiday who may be the team's best player. He looks like he's 12. But he makes great decisions (most of the time), controls the tempo, can pass, defends hard, and, when he's on his offensive game, is the team's most complete offensive player. It is truly amazing that in a draft that saw Hasheem Thabeet picked second and Jonny Flynn picked sixth, Jrue Holiday fell to the seventeenth pick (this is especially so because he was in the conversation for the fourth pick!). More amazing: Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, and Darren Collison were all picked after Jrue.
Jrue is the heart of the team. He needs to become a leader and dribble less. He needs to improve his decision-making. But he is the team's best player.
Evan Turner, as previously discussed, is an enigma. He's not a bust. But his shot is generally broken. He can score at the rim. He can dribble. He can defend. Too often he thinks he's the team's go-to scorer. In the Game 4 comeback, ET shot the ball 22 times (and made just 5). He has a lot of talent and a lot of room to grow. It's unclear whether he'll become a mainstay on this team yet. He is a necessary ball handler and has good size. But he needs to improve on offense and defense for his performance to match his pedigree. One big question with him is: where do you play him? Jrue is the 1. Is ET the backup 1? The 2? A 3? All of the above? DC has done a good job letting Turner share PG responsibilities but he needs to expand his game away from just being a big, ball-hogging point to become the player he can be.
Thaddeus Young is a high energy, perfect bench player. DC gave him the right role. I don't think he can be an NBA starter--not on talent, but just on his lack of a defined position. Thad cares. He can rebound. He has energy. The contract he was given this summer is surely rich and it does imply that the Sixers want more than spot minutes for him, but I still don't see Elton Brand's replacement here. His offensive game is still too raw and he still relies heavily on energy and speed (both of which he has in abundance). He is a great backup big.
Lavoy Allen is a wonderful rotation player to have. A cool character who can hit shots. He should be kept. Spencer Hawes brings size and shooting. He fits well with the team. My assumption is that he'll be gone. Lou William is the lone true scorer. The Sixers will almost definitely do their best to keep him.
The Future? Saturday's Game 7 will determine a lot. And I don't think that this team will have the opportunity to go so far in the playoffs for a long time. It is talented but lacking in scoring and size. Chicago with Rose would have beaten them in Round 1.
The Sixers need to add another 4 or 5 in the draft and perhaps through free agency. They need another scorer even if Lou stays. They need to internally improve especially since Jrue and ET are so young.
The Indiana Pacers, who whipped the Sixers in the regular season, are a good comparison point for this team. Indy's big differentiator is size. David West and Roy Hibbert are way better than EB and Hawes. The rest of Indy's team is similar: Collison, Paul George, George Hill, Danny Granger, Hansbrough, etc. Indy may have a bit more grit and offensive firepower but Iggy is similar to (probably better than) Granger, Holiday is better than Collison and Hill, Young and Hansbrough are similar energy guys, and Paul George is certainly a step beyond ET (but the Sixers have Lou too). The Sixers are deeper than the other up-and-coming "balanced" (i.e., no superstar) team in the East, but they don't compete on size.
Amazingly, if the Sixers beat the Celtics they'd face another hardnosed defensive team that has a thin frontcourt--so the Sixers' size problem will continue to be hidden.
Philly's learned a lot during these playoffs. First and foremost, is the experience that these defensive struggles have yielded. The team seemed stuck in Atlanta Hawks-style mediocrity and has had a chance to break out of that and truly evaluate its talent. Iguodala, Jrue and Lavoy have risen to the occasion as have many others on the roster at different points (Thad, Spencer, Lou, ET, EB). The future is murky for the 76ers but as a fan the ride this season has been something to remember.
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