Thursday, July 12, 2012

Free Agency and Sixers

My assumption going into free agency that the Sixers would probably sign Lavoy Allen, let Spencer Hawes go, and let the chips fall where they may with Lou Williams. I also assumed that Elton Brand would stay because: he adds a veteran presence, his expiring contract might be worth something during the season, and the team wouldn't want to eat his salary.

So far, I've been wrong about a bunch of things.

ESPN analyst John Hollinger has characterized the Sixers' front office as flying by the seat of their pants. His evidence rests on a few key pieces of evidence. First, he says that the Sixers should have signed Lavoy Allen to a deal that included options for subsequent years after year one. He says every team does this and it's bizarre that the Sixers didn't. Second, he says that this Lavoy mistake led to the amnestying of Brand so the Sixers could open up cap space for Nick Young that they would've had if Lavoy were under a cheapo second-round pick contract. Then, he sees the additions of Nick Young and Dorell Wright and the subtractions of Lou and EB and thinks he sees a team without a plan.

Sixers' co-owner Adam Aron has tweeted that they do have a plan and that their moves have been known internally for awhile--they just got reported as journalists sniffed out the details.

I don't know if the team has a plan or not. I know we have a good coach and I know some solid pieces have been added--and some vets jettisoned. The big thing will be whether they trade Iguodala--something I'm against b/c of Ig's defensive prowess. If Iguodala is gone, the team is clearly looking to build up again--a mini-rebuild--through youth.

Let's look at the moves:

Sixers re-sign Lavoy Allen (2 yrs) and Spencer Hawes (2 yrs). Hawes still has potential and, I think, Allen has more than fulfilled his. Both got fair deals: Hawes about 6.5mil per year, Allen about 2.5 mil per year. Billy King would've signed Hawes to a 50 mil deal no doubt. I like the length and reasonableness of the contracts. Allen will hopefully be a solid bench player. Hawes will hopefully have the incentive to get better with his short contract. The team desperately needs a shot-blocker! Fine moves value-wise.

Sixers amnesty/waive Elton Brand for cap space. A few thoughts here: one, this is a total Chris Webber situation where Brand will go to a solid veteran team (like Dallas) and start putting up numbers (15 and 8?). But watching the playoffs last year, it was obvious that Brand is more or less done. In the least he's a total waste of money on this team when Lavoy Allen (except for with his defensive lapses) more or less replicated Brand's production when the games mattered most. 11 points, 7 rebs, 1.5 blocks is decent but not worth breaking the bank. Put it this way: it's conceivable that Arnett Moultrie puts up similar numbers this year and he was an end of the first round draft pick. Brand did bring attitude and character and experience. But, he was gone next year anyway. This move fast-forwards things a bit and let's the team see what they really have. As Chad Ford said: in the short term it will hurt. So for one year they may be slightly worse than they would've been, but they'll get to give their young bigs experience. Nice move.

Sixers let Lou sign with the Hawks. Web sites are phrasing it as the Sixers "gave" EB and Lou for Dorell Wright and Nick Young. That's not the case. EB was gone this year or next anyway. They DID however replace Lou with Nick Young. Lou was too short in the playoffs. Against the Celtics he was not very useful. He played spotty. I think from a cap perspective this was the right move. Don't overpay this guy and lock yourself in. See what else is out there.

Sixers sign Nick Young (1 yr) and trade for Dorell Wright (1 yr left on contract). I really like Dorell Wright. Let's remember that the year before last he led the NBA in 3pters made and taken. He can shoot it. He's also big enough to conceivably play both forward positions. Nick Young was a bit of a loose cannon on the Wiz, but when he got hot in LA (or Washington) he was smokin'. He can't move the ball like Lou can, but the Sixers had enough guys to dribble (ET, Jrue, Ig) last year and no spot up shooters (save Lavoy and Spencer). These two will allow the Sixers to slash and space the floor. Imagine a lineup with Jrue, ET, Young, Wright, and Thad. Or Jrue, Ig, ET, Dorell, and Lavoy. There's floor spacing, offense, speed and potentially defense.

So, let's move on to possible depth charts and whether future moves are possible.

Here is the Sixers best defensive 5 as it stands: Jrue/ET/Ig/Thad/Lavoy (yes, that frontcourt is weak)

Here is their best offensive 5: Jrue/ET/Young/Dorell/Thad.

Both line-ups are a stretch, so let's look at a possible depth chart.

C: Hawes/Vucevic/Moultrie
PF: Thad Young/Lavoy/Moultrie
SF: Iguodala/Wright/Harkless
SG: Turner/Young
PG: Holiday/Turner

That depth chart actually captures 11 players! I do think that the idea is to have ET play backup point guard. I think that Young may even start (or Wright) playing the former Meeks role.

With no changes, the starters could be Hawes/Thad or Moultrie/Ig/Young/Jrue leaving a bench of Vucevic/Thad or Moultrie/Wright/Harkless/ET. That's a pretty sick bench. I put Moultrie in as a starter because he can rebound. The starters with Ig, Young, Jrue, Moultrie, and Hawes are actually pretty dynamic and including shooting, slashing, D, and rebounding. The second unit with ET/Harkless/Wright/Thad/Vucevic/Lavoy would probably beat any other NBA team's second unit.

The issues I see foremost are with the frontcourt. Lavoy and Vucevic are decent backups. Hawes is fine but unless he improves a lot he's a marginally good starting center. There is no real PF. I'm assuming a rookie (Moultrie) will start at PF because I think Thad and Spencer as starters would be way too undersized and would lack rebounding. Brand would've helped but he doesn't move the dial that much. Would trading Ig for a good PF help? Someone like Millsap might. There are two angles here: either Moultrie/Lavoy/Vuc/Hawes improve or they bring someone in. They can bring someone in next year with cap space (when Young and Wright's deals expire) or trade Iguodala.

If you trade Ig for a PF, the lineups do look cleaner. Let's say, the Sixers trade Ig for Paul Millsap or Pau Gasol.

Then you've got:

C Hawes; PF Gasol/Millsap; SF Wright; SG Tuner; PG Holiday still with a good bench of: Nick Young, Thad Young, Lavoy, Harkless, and Vucevic.

I think I just convinced myself to trade Iguodala. Ha ha.

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