Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Sixers FA Strategy

A perusal of NBA news sources leads me to believe that, in addition to re-signing Iggy and Lou, the Sixers FA strategy is as follows:

Option 1) Sign Josh Smith.

Option 2) Sign Elton Brand.

Option 3) Sign a few decent players while retaining some extra cap space for next year. Most probably: Mickael Pietrus and/or James Jones and Nenad Krstic.

What I'd love to see: Josh Smith and Jones/Pietrus (and maybe Krstic too).

Draft Grades

ESPN.com has very good draft grades, but I thought I'd add my two cents on the draft. I'll keep it to winners, since the losers are not clear-cut and the draft to them will simply be a missed-opportunity. Teams that improved themselves in the draft "won" the draft, those that didn't, in my estimation, stood still. The draft grades deal with the pre- and immediately post-draft trades, so these can also be viewed as trade evaluations. I'll end with my eval of the Sixers.

Winners

East:

Toronto Raptors-They gave their pick to Indiana, a team that then frittered it away on Roy Hibbert, and got rid of TJ Ford for the equally injury-prone, but far more valuable Jermaine O'Neal. Teams and fans seems to be in love with PGs and due to that love, seem to believe that great PGs can take you to the next level. That belief is wrong. The only really great offensive PG to win a championship since the beginning of the Bulls Dynasty was Tony Parker. The other championship PGs have been: Avery Johnson, Rajon Rondo, Ron Harper, Derek Fisher, and Sam Cassell (who admittedly was an offensive force, but no one's pick for a dominant point guard). Clyde Drexler, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Kevin Johnson, and their ilk have been also-rans. A defensive PG is highly important for stopping the opponents' offense. An offensive, flashy PG brings in the dollars, but not the trophies. Chris Paul will hopefully become the total package and disprove this adage. That said, its interesting that neither Phil Jackson nor Greg Popovich put a lot of weight into getting a great PG. Everyone else seems to think that this is essential. The Jason Kidd trade for this reason was a terrible one, he won't win you anything, while the Shaq trade while not great was at least a swing at someone who, if healthy and spry, would've made the Suns a winner. Magic and Isiah won championships but Isiah had a staunch defensive team around him and Magic was a freak of nature who also had a dominant big man on his team.

This is all a roundabout way of saying that Jermaine O'Neal, a quality big man, if healthy, is way better than TJ Ford. With Bosh and O'Neal, the Raptors have a shot at winning the East. And, at least, they should easily make the second round. Add Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Andrea Bargnani, and Joey Graham to the mix and you have the makings of a team that can make a long playoff run. I think they still need a piece or two--another scorer and a backup PG to be specific--but they made a very good deal. At least its better to have a high-risk big man (whose proven himself in the NBA) than a high-risk PG.


Chicago Bulls-Derrick Rose will help the Bulls immeasurably. John Paxson has been asleep at the wheel the past year and he still got the number one pick in the draft and has the chance to redeem himself completely. If the NBA's fixing anything, its fixing the Chicago Bulls' franchise. This franchise was handed high draft picks and cap space for Jamal Crawford and Eddie Curry courtesy of Isiah Thomas, it wasted its chance to translate a team that knocked off the then NBA champion Miami Heat into a contender by not signing its important players or trading its young pieces for quality veterans, and then it is rewarded with the number one pick. This team added Tyrus Thomas (yes, it should have been LaMarcus Aldridge), Joakim Noah (who I think will be very good), and Derrick Rose while it was already a strong playoff-worthy team. Ridiculous.

Now what do they do? They have a logjam in the backcourt with Ben Gordon (who everyone thinks they should now keep), Thabo Sefalosha (who could be great), Larry Hughes (who is at best redundant), and Kirk Hinrich (who needs to go). They also have quite a bit of rebounding forwards headlined by Luol Deng who is really their only potential superstar scorer (other than Gordon who is just a scorer), Joakim Noah (who can play center), Tyrus Thomas (who should become an energy guy off the bench), and Drew Gooden (the only solid vet in the frontcourt). If they trade Hinrich and/or Hughes for a scorer they will be a very, very dangerous team.

Miami Heat-They got Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers, two important pieces, to add to Dwyane Wade and the maybe on-his-way-out Shawn Marion. Whether they keep Marion or not, Beasley will be a much needed scorer; this team could not find the basket at all last year. That said, though the Heat have talent it doesn't quite fit together yet and I think they're still in a transitional phase. Wade should be one of the best players in the NBA, he did practically single-handedly (on offense) win the Finals, Marion is an elite defender and a great all-around player, and Beasley is arguably better than Kevin Durant (based on college stats, that is). That said, I'm far from convinced that this is the team the Heat want to build on. I think they'll win some games next year, but I don't like their chances to make the playoffs.

Milwaukee Bucks-Talk about a lucky break, while the Nets pine for LeBron (who increasingly sounds like he may very well join them in Brooklyn), they literally gave away Richard Jefferson (a great player and an Olympian) for Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlin. The Nets then went and drafted Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson and Chris Douglas-Roberts. CDR will help them, but between Lopez, Anderson, Krstic, and Yi you have the makings of a very tall, very young, very soft frontcourt.

Meanwhile Milwaukee, added Luc Richard Mbah-a-Moute to replace Simmons, Joe Alexander to come off the bench, and Richard Jefferson to secure the SF position. They now have a playoff-worthy lineup of Mo Williams, Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, and Andrew Bogut. If Bogut and Williams continue to improve and if Redd and RJ stay healthy, this team that looked dead in the water a second ago could easily make the East playoffs.

West:

Memphis Grizzlies-The Grizzlies came away with OJ Mayo and Darrell Arthur. Yes, they basically handed Mike Miller, a very good player, to Minnesota, but they got perhaps the best take of anyone in the draft. Conley, Gay, Mayo, Arthur, and Milicic at least make the beginnings of an athletic, competitive team. The Gay-Mayo backcourt: Priceless.

Minnesota Timberwolves-They got Mike Miller for free in the Kevin Love deal, which improves the team quite a bit. They did take back Brian Cardinal in exchange for Marko Jaric, but that was at worst a lateral move and Jaric actually has 3 years left on his deal vs. Cardinal's 2. Jefferson, Love, Miller, McCants, and Foye make a very interesting team. They do have Corey Brewer too, who I think has the potential to be a good player, but who is already viewed as a bust for some reason. Mayo would have duplicated what Brewer and Foye already provide. I thought that I would assess this team as a decent one, but now that I write it all out it sounds like they have the potential for a very good albeit defensively deficient squad.

Portland Trailblazers-They added Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum. Bayless will be the perfect fit for the rising Blazers. He'll play in the backcourt with Roy and add shooting and ball distribution to a team that is already stacked. Between Bayless, Roy, Outlaw, Alridge, and Oden this team will be very dangerous and has the makings of a future champion.

Houston Rockets-If this team ever gets healthy, they could definitely win a championship. They've got Battier, McGrady, Scola, Ming and now they added Donte Green, another great shooter, and Joey Dorsey, more toughness. They have all the elements together now, they just have to catch the right breaks.


SIXERS: As for the Sixers, I'll wait to reserve judgement on Marreese Speights who seems like a player who will fit their style very well. I don't think he'll make a big difference in his first year, though I expect him to get some burn late in the season, but he could eventually become the starting power forward on this young, up-and-coming team. Definitely a pick with a lot of potential. Speights does not suffer from the significant bust-potential (or downside) of guys like JaVale McGee, DeAndre Jordan, Alexis Ajinca, and Jason Thompson. The Sixers could have picked Darrell Arthur (who too many teams passed on; I really think Washington should have snapped him up), but at this moment I feel that they made the right choice. Speights has the potential to be a solid power forward on a running team, he showed some of his talents at Florida and is a player whose future is ahead of him. Hopefully, the Sixers come out as the big winners of this draft; at this point, however, I'm not yet ready to crown them.

Sixers Free Agency Strategy

Now that we know who the Sixers picked (Marreese Speight; good pick) and the draft is behind us. It is time to consider free agency.

From what I've been reading the Sixers are targeting Josh Smith from Atlanta, who is a restricted FA. Everyone hopes they get Elton Brand, but it sounds like his asking price is above the amount of money the Sixers' have to spend. Smith would actually be the perfect compliment to this team. Imagine a line-up of Dalembert, Smith/Speights, Young, Iguodala, and Miller/Williams with role players and shooters coming off the bench. That team would be the next Detroit Pistons: a strong defensive squad that can score too. I think Josh Smith would be the perfect fit for the Sixers .... but I don't know if Atlanta will let him go.

If they do, we must pursue Elton Brand. Rumor has it that Brand will go back to L.A.C. and possibly join up with Baron Davis there. After those two options, there's not much I can say. Antawn Jamison, not a great fit in my opinion, is off the market, Gilbert Arenas and Baron Davis will be way over priced and we already have Andre Miller (though he needs a successor badly), and then there's Corey Maggette who we could add if we got rid of a couple of our many swingmen.

One name I'd like to put out there: James Jones. I think he's a good shooter, young guy, free agent, who could help the Sixers and come at a modest price.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

DRAFT DAY

Draft Day is upon us. So much is going on that I'll stick it to bullet points on the draft, trades and the Sixers:

  • Jermaine O'Neal was traded from the Pacers to the Raptors for TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the no. 17 pick. I think that this helps the Raptors immeasurably. Yes, O'Neal has a huge contract but I think TJ Ford is much more injury prone and the Raptors can retain Jose Calderon and still get great production. Having two great big men--with Bargnani, Calderon, Parker, etc.--will be a huge advantage for Toronto. This could catapult them into the top tier of the East if Jermaine stays healthy. As for the Pacers, ESPN is saying this move will give them a lot of cap room next year, which should definitely help. They seem to be in an ugly mid-stage phase with the injury-prone Ford and Tinsley at the guard spots, two picks in the draft (who could contribute), and some perimeter guys. I think Jim O'Brien will want to create a perimeter-style team like the Antoine Walker-Paul Pierce Celtics with a lineup like TJ Ford, Mike Dunleavy, Donte Green, Danny Granger, and Troy Murphy. My opinion: that's a dangerous regular season team and a bad post-season one.
  • ESPNews is now reporting that the Sonics have swapped the 4 pick to the Clippers for no. 7. The Blazers bought no. 27 from the Hornets, meaning the Hornets will look to add a free agent rather than a draftee, and the Bobcats, this year's East darkhorse due to the presence of Larry Brown, bought the no. 20 pick from Denver. Why the Sixers never buy a late first-rounder is beyond me. They have as many holes as anyone else....
  • I vacillate between thinking that this is a great, deep draft and a very thin one. There are A LOT of young big players that could be great or busts in the draft between Koufos, Ajinca, McGee, Jordan, Speights, Hickson, Thompson, Hibbert, the Lopez twins, and Randolph. I'm probably even forgetting a few there. Most likely busts seem to be McGee and Jordan--though Jordan seems to have the most upside of the group. Given recent history, it is just flat impossible that more than 50% of these big men turn out to be good. At least half, and probably two-thirds, will be total busts. I think the "potential" guys like Ajinca, Jordan, McGee, and Randolph have the greatest bust potential because they haven't shown anything yet. The safer picks--Hibbert, Koufos, the Lopez twins--don't have as high a ceiling, but don't have as low a floor either. The only player of the group that appears like he COULD become a dominant defensive big man is Jordan, but he also looks extremely raw. The one-year college rule has definitely added more knowledge about players to the draft and guys that did nothing in college should raise some red flags.
  • Who should the Sixers take then? I think Donte Green could be good, but he could also be the next Damone Brown (remember him?). The Sixers basically have to take a big man that they think could either become their backup center, starting center, or power forward. Speights excites me the most of the group since he has actually produced something in college. Jordan scares me. He just wreaks of being a total bust and waste of a pick, though he does have the most potential (he was being discussed as a top five pick before workouts began). Koufos seems like an offensive guy and we have Jason Smith already. Robin Lopez kind of excites me. He's a skilled hustle guy who will give the Sixers size and he's definitely not going to be a total waste of a pick. If his ceiling is Anderson Varejao, then I think that's great. Ajinca seems intriguing but he is most probably a Euro-bust pick. McGee is most definitely going to be a third-string center type guy and we already are stuck with Calvin Booth for one more year. Finally, if we can get Anthony Randolph who seems a bit like Tyrus Thomas (but rail thin), I think he could really help us. I doubt he's there though.
  • I think this draft will have a lot of bust picks in it. There are so many young players and Euros that have limited experience in it and that have not yet produced much. A lot of big players are in this draft, and big men bust quite a bit (ask Seattle/OKC). I think Derrick Rose and a couple other guys from the draft will be great players. There will be a lot of rotation type guys coming out of this draft between the first and second rounds since there are just so many players that appear to be of equal value. There will also be some amazing late-round finds. The later picks may turn out to be better than the early ones, like in some previous draft (the Kobe draft comes to mind). Some guy picked in the early second may be the third best player taken in the whole thing. The Sixers have to be VERY careful. They could easily get a great player at 16, someone much better than they would get in most other drafts (where there are more "knowns) at that pick, but they could just as easily get someone completely useless. Think either Carlos Boozer or Jerome Moiso.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Inquirer's (Guess?) of the Sixers Top Eight Choices



The Sixers' Elite 8 at No. 16

Here are the Sixers' top prospects, listed in alphabetical order:

Darrell Arthur

Kansas; 6-foot-9, 216 pounds; 20-year-old sophomore; 12.8 points, 6.3 rebounds.

The skinny: He played only 25 minutes per game as a sophomore and didn't improve much off a solid freshman season. Still, he runs the floor and fits the Sixers' run-and-gun style.

Ed Stefanski says: "Obviously, he's a winner, being on an NCAA champion. He seems to be a good face-up shooter to 17 or 18 feet. His back-to-the-basket moves have improved in two years. He can really run the floor."

Donte Greene

Syracuse; 6-foot-9, 221 pounds; 20-year-old freshman; 17.7 points, 7.2 rebounds.

The skinny: Half of the shots Greene attempted were from three-point range. He can extend defenses, but his lack of an inside game and devotion to defense have turned scouts off.

Stefanski says: "A very talented kid with the ball. He's an excellent shooter, can go get his shot. Where he needs to work on is his defensive side of the ball. He has the capabilities, and he's athletic enough."

DeAndre Jordan

Texas A&M; 6-foot-11, 250 pounds, 19-year-old freshman, 7.9 points, 6.0 rebounds.

The skinny: At the beginning of the season, he was touted as a high pick. But Jordan played only 20.1 minutes per game and was thought to take plays off.

Stefanski says: "He's got a great body. He's extremely athletic and a good rebounder. He has to work on his offensive skills. He's a project with a lot of upside."

Kosta Koufos

Ohio State; 7-foot-1, 265 pounds; 19-year-old freshman; 14.4 points, 6.7 rebounds.

The skinny: Koufos impressed scouts with his ability to shoot the ball outside the key. He didn't have a spectacular freshman year and was largely inconsistent.

Stefanski says: "Koufos is a legit 7-footer. He's mobile and can really shoot the basketball. . . . He is an intriguing kid."

JaVale McGee

Nevada; 7-foot, 241 pounds; 20-year-old sophomore; 14.1 points, 7.3 rebounds.

The skinny: He went from scoring 3.3 points per game as a freshman to 14.1 as a sophomore. Plus, the athletic big man is still only developing his post presence. But he's a major project.

Stefanski says: "He is a long, athletic kid who is much better offensively now. He can block a shot, but he has to get a better body on the defensive end. If you draft a JaVale McGee, you're betting on the upside."

Anthony Randolph

Louisiana State; 6-foot-10, 197 pounds; 18-year-old freshman; 15.6 points, 8.5 rebounds.

The skinny: He was a consensus top-10 pick until he started working out with NBA teams. The main concerns are his durability and strength, but he runs the floor well.

Stefanski says: "He's a real skilled kid. He needs work on his body. . . . The workouts are not fair to him because he's better with four players out there with him."

Marreese Speights

Florida; 6-foot-10, 245 pounds; 20-year-old sophomore; 14.5 points, 8.1 rebounds.

The skinny: Questions linger about his conditioning and strength. Still, he has played on winning teams and is a terrific low-post scorer and rebounder.

Stefanski says: "He can shoot the ball. He works with his left and right hand around the basket. He runs the floor. Maybe not the hardest defensive player you'll see."

Jason Thompson

Rider; 6-foot-11, 250 pounds; 21-year-old senior; 20.4 points, 12.1 rebounds.

The skinny: He's the ultimate sleeper at 16. Thompson put up dazzling numbers (at least 20 and 10) the last two seasons. There are concerns about strength and focus, though.

Stefanski says: "His better days are down the road. He's a guy we've discussed. He can run the floor and is another guy who's big that has good hands. He has to get his range a little bit better."

- Compiled by Staff Writer Matt Gelb

Inquirer on Iguodala



Iguodala confident about future with Sixers

If Andre Iguodala is worried about becoming a restricted free agent next Tuesday, it certainly didn't show yesterday as he played soccer, shot some hoops and read a book to a slew of wide-eyed kids during the All-Sports Day at the Marjorie and Lewis Katz Camden County Boys and Girls Club in East Camden.

And talking to him later, he said as much.

"I'm not really thinking about it," said Iguodala, who spent close to 2 hours with the children. "I just go and work out every day, try to enjoy my time off, keep working in the gym and just stay relaxed.

"When the time comes [for contract talks], it's going to come, I'm not really worried about that. Last year the talks were going back and forth and there were some frustrating days. It's going to happen, you just can't let it get you up or down. You've just got to be prepared for the season because everything else will take care of itself. I mean, I'm happy. I've got a job."

Whether that's here or in another NBA city is the, let's say, $57 million question. That's the supposed total of a 5-year extension offered to him by the team before last season. Iguodala refused the deal, figuring he would use his performance last season as leverage for a contract that would put him in the same astronomical salary range as the game's elites.

And he countered by having the best of his four seasons in the league. He averaged 19.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.1 steals. But more than the numbers, you have to believe that Iguodala, uncovered by the blanket that was Allen Iverson, blossomed into more of a leader on a team heavily sprinkled with youngsters. A true sign of a star is making teammates better. Iguodala, along with point guard Andre Miller, certainly appeared to do that for a team that finished 40-42 after starting 18-30.

If Iguodala believes he will be playing elsewhere next season, he is masking it well. Before his appearance in Camden yesterday, he was at Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine watching as the Sixers worked out potential picks in tomorrow's draft, in which the team holds the 16th overall pick.

"I went to the workout to see who they brought in," he said. "I watch a lot of college basketball, too. I have to be a little bit interested. One of those guys might be your next teammate. I think it's good to be involved a little bit, have some input and try to get a feel for the guys' personalities on the team. That's important as well."

A key cog in the Sixers' young, talented core, Jason Smith - who accompanied Iguodala to Camden - laughed out loud when asked about the anxiety draft day brought him last season. He was picked 20th by Miami, then quickly traded to the Sixers.

"There was this nervousness that set in my stomach, not knowing whether I was going to go in the first round or the second round," Smith said after charming nearly every child in attendance. "I chose not to go to the draft in New York and stayed home to watch it with my family in Colorado. The picks go by and you're thinking, 'Oh, my goodness.' Then my agent called and told me to be ready, the next few teams like you.

"When they called my name, my family went nuts and I'm looking at the TV screen and thinking, 'Wow, that's my picture up there.' "

As for whom his team might take this year, Smith gave the exact answer a player with 1 year under his belt probably should give.

"I really haven't paid that much attention to the draft," he said. "I've tried to just distance myself from it, just to try to get away from basketball. Now that I'm getting back into the swing of it [after having worked out in Atlanta with shooting coach Mark Price and teammates Rodney Carney, Louis Williams and Thaddeus Young], I think we're looking to make a good pick or trade our pick. I'm not sure what we're doing. I wish I was a little more informed about it [laughs]."

Come tomorrow, and sometime not too long after July 1, Smith, Iguodala and the Sixers' faithful should have a better idea. *

Monday, June 23, 2008

State of the Union by Licky

With the NBA playoffs coming to their uneventful conclusion (I think the Celtics won), it's now time to focus on what matters in this world - the Philadelphia 76ers. This blog, after all, is called "Sixers Fiend," not "A place to repost Chad Ford chats." Whether or not the Charlotte Bobcats are thinking about rehiring Bernie Bickerstaff doesn't interest me. What interests me? The Sixers. A team who through the years have brought us joy and pain (mostly pain) and whose alumni includes Michael Cage, Jeff Ruland, and Billy Owens.

Ok, so with the draft a few days away, it seems like a good time to take stock. A nice season, some nice playoff wins, but it's clear they need help. Most importantly they need a power forward and a point guard to succeed Andre Miller (a tall one at that if you believe, as I do, that Lou Williams isn't a capable of playing point and will probably be a 2). As there don't seem to be many quality point guards projected to go in the middle of the 1st round, lets talk big men. Here's my analysis:

Let me start off by saying that if the Sixers take Kosta Koufos I'm going to sever my testes, sprinkle them with goats blood, and mail them first class to Uncle Eddie Stephanski. That aside, there are some nice big men available where the Sixers pick.

"The Frontrunner" - Marreese Speights, 6'10, Florida. One of the few players the Sixers have worked out in person. Projected by most mock drafts to go right around 16. One of the few big men with post skills who can rebound in that classic Karl Malone power forward mold. Plus Raivetz likes him, and he played with Kobe, so I can't disagree. Would be a solid pick

"The Longshot" - Anthony Randolph, 6'11, LSU. One of the most highly rated players in the draft, the 6ers would most likely have to trade up to get him. Can rebound, very athletic, can handle the ball. Would fit very nicely with the Sixers uptempo style. If he falls to 16 I'm going to head down south on the broad street line down and ejaculate on the spectrum. I hope there are no children reading this (ie Tonti)

"The Project" DeAndre Jordan, 7'0, Texas A&M. This is an interesting one. I caught this guy play once this year and he definitely stood out as ridiculously talented. Doesn't have many offensive moves, but great around the basket, Dwight Howard type explosiveness (with skinnier frame). Would be an interesting pick, though don't think he would fit well with Dalembert and Iguadala.

Others

Donte Green, 6'10 Syracuse. More of a small forward

Robin Lopez, 7'0, Stanford. Stiff.

Kevin Love, 6'9, UCLA. Interesting. Projected high, though will inevitably fall when teams come to their senses and remember his skin color. Would conceivably be a good fit with the Sixers, but they drafted Jason Smith last year, so thinking of two whities in their future frontcourt makes me throw up in my mouth.