State of The Process

With Liberty Ballers and half of Philadelphia groveling at Sam Hinkie's feet and the other half calling for an end to Tankadelphia, I thought it might be a good time to evaluate what we've seen so far.

Of course, Jerry Colangelo was just hired to either advise, help or usurp Hinkie so clearly ownership thinks that something has been amiss.

It is true that the Sixers have been unlucky in the draft lottery. Nerlens Noel (injured) fell to them as did Joel Embiid. Brett Brown even said after the 2014 draft that he expected to get Wiggins and Stauskas not injured Embiid and away Saric.

Recent events have not painted Hinkie in the best light. Kristaps Porzingis (NY, pick 4) is spreading the floor and blocking shots for the Knicks while Jahlil Okafor (pick 3) is ground-bound on the Sixers. Okafor has also had disciplinary problems--and some say that Duke even hid some of his fighting issues from the public. Hinkie was too slow in punishing Okafor and gave him a slap on the wrist since Okafor is one of the Important Assets.

Let's review what happened:

Sam Hinkie was hired to great fanfare and in his first season showed a willingness to trade, a penchant for secrecy, the courage to make an impulsive deal, and a strong valuation of future assets vis-a-vis present ones. His first big move was trading then-All-Star Jrue Holiday to NO for Nerlens Noel and a future pick. He would later trade Evan Turner and Lavoy Allen to Indiana basically for nothing. He would also trade Spencer Hawes to Cleveland for a second rounder and Henry Sims. He added Hollis Thompson (whose still on the team). He kept Thaddeus Young. Michael Carter-Williams won rookie of the year despite inflated stats.

Year two saw the return of Noel. The epic punch-in-the-stomach 2014 draft that saw two first round picks deferred (though the swap of the No. 10 pick for a Saric, a 1st and 2nd looked good on paper if you forget that the No. 10 was the very good Elfrid Payton) and a couple good-looking 2nd rounders in KJ McDaniels and Jerami Grant. The team seemed to be gelling when MCW was traded to Milwaukee for a future Lakers pick and KJ McDaniels was traded to HOU for Isaiah Canaan. Thad Young was jettisoned for a pick.

This year the draft brought in Jahlil Okafor and Rishaun Holmes but the team is an abysmal 1-21 due to no experienced players (Luc Mbah a Moute--a good defender and vet--is gone; so is PG Ish Smith) and some mismatched parts. Nic Stauskas was acquired through trade but he doesn't start on the team. Noel and Okafor so far cannot play together. Noel has regressed. For the second year in a row, both Embiid and Saric are not playing. There is no real PG--Tony Wroten (!) and Kendall Marshall are supposed to be the saviors and Carl Landry (what?!) is supposed to be the veteran presence. The team was just annihilated by the Spurs and hired Jerry Colangelo.

Current Assets:
After a teardown year and two drafts, Sam Hinkie has better future picks than he does current players. Embiid, Noel and Okafor will not be able to all play together. One or even two of them will have to be swapped out. Stauskas and Thompson are both decent shooters--though Hollis may be the better of the two at this point. Okafor is useless on defense and Noel is useless on offense. Robert Covington, a D-League find last year, is proving a decent rotation guy. Jerami Grant shows flashes. Isaiah Canaan is just OK.

Hinkie has a lot of misses: Furkhan Aldemir (cut after one year and the only really substantial FA contract player signed); MCW (traded after one year-plus); Canaan for KJ McDaniels (can't vouch for that one and I hate that he equated it as a swap of one 2nd round pick for two--these are players and a future 2nd rounder guarantees nothing); Nic Stauskas (is he Jimmer Fredette or will he improve??); Okafor over Porzingis; Noel and MCW over Antetokounmpo and Gobert; Embiid over Marcus Smart; Saric for Elfrid Payton and picks; and why did he trade Jason Thompson for a completely useless pick swap from Golden State?

He has some hits too: Okafor does look good; Noel looked great last year; Covington was a nice find; the Jrue and Saric trades got back great value; the Stauskas trade will net a future first from Sacto and meaningless pick swaps; a slew of second rounders.

The 2016 Draft:
Due to various trades the Sixers are in prime position to improve with the 2016 draft but only if Hinkie views the present as somewhat important.

I think the hope for this draft is a little overblown given that the Lakers pick will probably not convey (it's top 3 protected and they're the second worst team) and that the other two picks belong to Miami and OKC so they will sit somewhere between 21 and 28 (and not the mid-round picks they could've been last year).

Best case the Sixers get a top-3 pick and the Lakers at number 4 or 5 plus the two later picks.

More realistically they get a top-3 pick and don't get the Lakers pick. So they will add one potentially great player and two decent first round picks. They are limited in who will fit on their team due to their overabundance of bigs (Can we still get that Noel for Smart swap?). A PG and wings are absolutely necessary. Drafting another center to add to Holmes, Saric, Embiid, Noel, and Okafor would be kinda dumb.

Additionally, Saric and Embiid are due to actually play next year.

So the Sixers should have a team that looks a little like this (assuming they take a PG with their highest 1st rounder):

PG 1st rounder  Backups: Marshall, Wroten, McConnell
SG Stauskas/Thompson Backups: 1st rounder, Canaan
SF Covington Backups: 1st rounder, Sampson
PF Okafor Backups: Saric, Holmes, J. Grant
C Embiid Backups: Noel

That's seventeen players--more than they can actually carry on their team. If healthy the above team would be much better than the current perhaps-historically-bad squad. They'd still need a year or two to get better. They would not obviously have their anchor player though Embiid and/or the new first rounder can be that.

In 2017, they may get the Lakers pick (which let's say will be no. 7) and their own pick (let's guess no. 5). So their team ould then shed some stragglers and field a team with something like seven high first round picks.

In sum, things look really bad now but will get noticeably better soon and even better in later seasons. And that's even without making a trade to clear the big man logjam.