The NBA's ultimate dream machine has somehow come to fruition. ESPN worried aloud with great frequency that we might see Jazz v. Pistons or Spurs v. Cavs in the Finals. Instead, two exciting teams with rich histories that the casual observer is interested in are playing in the Finals.
I think way too much is made of the TV producers' wishes when talking about Finals matchups, but the history of this rivalry cannot be understated. Wys Grousbeck was heard last night after the Celtics game saying, "We're 8-2 against LA in the Finals." But the dominant Bill Russell Celtics and the Bird-Magic rivalry have nothing to do with this year's NBA championship. The organizations may be rivals, but history has no bearing on the outcome of Kobe vs. Pierce.
I'll provide some observations on each team and then dispense a prediction.
Celtics: Paul Pierce is the best player on the Celtics. KG is maybe the best complementary player of all time. He will never score over 30 even in a playoff game, but he'll give you great defense, blocks, boards, assists, and 20+ points. We've been waiting all playoffs to see KG dominate like he can on offense, but, for better and worse, he is content being a spoke in the cog that keeps the offense going and doesn't volume score. Ray Allen, after a flurry accusations of his demise, is back scoring about 17 a game; nothing fantastic, but not terrible either. Kendrick Perkins, I begrudgingly must admit, is actually a decent center alongside KG, though his short neck, constant scowl, and generally sour attitude are beyond annoying. Rajon Rondo is that guy on the other team that you figure you will have a match-up advantage on, but who ends up outplaying guys he has no business outplaying. His shot is not great and his lob passes are dangerous, but he is actually a very solid point. The rest of the Celtics are a bunch of mercenary role players. Eddie House can score, Sam Cassell can provide stability and ball-hog-ability, James Posey is a great defender (or so I've heard, I can't tell how good he really is on D), Leon Powe and Glenn Davis are serviceable big men, and PJ Brown has it in him to come up big in spots in one game per series.
The Celtics team defense is great. Watching them against Detroit, you see them making great rotations, doubling, and generally not allowing the opposition a lot of breating room. On offense, when their shooters are on and they're rebounding they look great, especially when Pierce takes control of the offense. The team is more comfortable scoring 90 than 100 and that is a weakness that LA may exploit (just like it did against San Antonio). The Celtics beat Detroit because of Paul Pierce, their defense, and their front line. They look better now than they did earlier in the playoffs.
Lakers: The Lakers have had so much internal improvement that some of the players on their team don't sound as good as they really are. Phil Jackson once again has created a team where roles are well-defined, the offense flows fluidly, and the team's defense is greater than the sum of its parts. Phil is a master motivator and knows how to use his players perfectly. The team has tight substitution patterns, players never seem tired, and the Lakers always exploit match-ups on the offensive end. The much-razzed Doc Rivers is also a good motivator and has to be a decent coach to get his team to the Finals, but Phil Jackson's 9 championships can no longer be ignored. He has always been accused of having the greatest players in the game on his team: Kobe, MJ, Shaq; and that accusation still rings true, but Phil's amazing job with this Laker team significantly weakens the "Phil's teams were already great argument" (remember before they got Gasol for free they had Bynum dominating). I don't know how great Phil or Doc's X's-and-O's are, but I can't imagine that Phil's are anything but top-rate. One final note on Jackson: Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan have never won a championship or gone to the championship without Phil Jackson.
As for personnel, you've gotta start with Kobe who is an unstoppable scorer with his extremely accurate jump-shot, elite-level athleticism, post-ups, and drives to the basket. He can basically score at will like MJ and LeBron can, and he has the killer instinct that those two have. Kobe's defense, too, is fantastic and his experience this past summer with Team USA clearly showed that he is the best player in the NBA. Maybe he's not as talented as LeBron, but he's a finished product right now that scores 30 points a game and gets about 6 boards and 6 assists. Add to Kobe a sometimes dominant (offensively) Pau Gasol, who Kobe frequently uses like he did Shaq on drive-and-dish alley-oops and you have a killer offensive combo. Gasol can score from 15 feet, is an elite finisher, and can catch the ball anywhere with his long arms and huge hands. Gasol's presence allows Lamar Odom to play the number 3 role that he relishes. Odom played this role briefly on the Dwyane Wade Miami Heat team he played on, and he absolutely excelled. Odom loves exploiting mismatches and he can really do it all. At times in his career he's been the biggest waste of talent in the NBA, but now he's scoring on post-ups and drives to the basket, playing great D, and generally stepping up when his team needs him. The guy is a 6'10" forward with a PG's handle and a smooth game. If he had more fire in his belly, he could've been one of the best players in the NBA. As is, he is among the top 3 number 3 guys in the NBA; he's arguably better than Rasheed Wallace, Mehmet Okur, and Ray Allen, though not better than Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili.
The Lakers Big Three (it will be a Big Four when Bynum comes back, though who knows how the rotations and chemistry will be?) are complemented by shooters and defenders. Sasha Vujacic is an energy guy and a deadeye shooter that keeps getting better. He's the Lakers' Barbosa, and he's arguably better than Leandro. Radmanovic is a great shooter, who infrequently performs well. Derek Fisher is a great three-point shooter and defender. Luke Walton is a highly skilled forward that can rebound, play D, and handle the ball. Roni Turiaf provides energy, defense, and rebounding. Jordan Farmar is a serviceable back-up point guard. Trevor Ariza is an athletic swingman, coming off an injury, who may see some minutes as a change-of-pace man off the bench.
Prediction: The Lakers have the better offense, better coach, and best player in the series. The Celtics have hungry veterans, great defense, and home field advantage. I don't foresee any scenario where the Celtics can win it. KG and Pierce in the least need to match the production of Pau and Kobe for the Celtics to have any chance. The Celtics have to slow the Lakers offense, something the Spurs and Jazz could not do. Further, the Celtics have to get great performances from Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, and some of their role players.
I think the Lakers just have too many good shooters for the Celtics and Kobe is just too good to be stopped when he has Pau and Lamar at his sides. Imagine a Lakers lineup of Fisher, Kobe, Pau, Odom, and Vujacic. Who would the Celtics have to have on the floor to match them? Rondo could cover Fish, KG on Pau, Pierce on Kobe, then it get a bit difficult ... Ray Allen or Eddie House could cover Vujacic, but Vujacic is fast and would force those two to be honest on D. Lamar Odom would force the Celtics to heavily use James Posey, who I'm not sure can stop Odom. The Lakers could also put out a big line-up with Walton and Vujacic complementing their big three and the Celtics would have to have Rondo play Vujacic and Allen play Walton. Notice that Kendrick Perkins is now taken out of the equation, which would bite into the Celtics rebounding and interior defense.
The Celtics may be able to match-up, but Kobe and Phil are just too good. I think KG and Pierce (and Allen) are hungry to win a championship, but so is Kobe and Kobe is the best player in the game and has the best coach in the game. I don't think the Lakers offense can be stopped, but I believe that the Celtics can be stopped. The Lakers beat a very potent (on offense) Nuggets team 4-0, they beat a deep team with a great PG, All-Star PF, shooters and defenders in the Jazz, and beat the defending champs 4-1 whose big three is definitely better than the Celitcs big three. Duncan is better than KG, Parker beats Allen by a mile, and Ginobili and Pierce are similar talents. The Celtics, like the Spurs, have a veteran bench that includes some shooters and some big men. The Celtics may not be as broken down as the Spurs, but the Lakers have proven time and again in these playoffs that they can close-out any team in the NBA.
As for home field advantage, the Lakers are 12-3 in the playoffs, including 8-0 at Staples Center, where they haven't lost in two months. The Celtics have only lost once at home. I foresee, however, that it'll be 1-1 after 2, then 3-1 after 4 and the Lakers will win in 6. There will be a blowout or two in this series, but most of the games should be entertaining. I can't wait for tipoff on Thursday!
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