Monday, May 26, 2008

Playoffs and the Sixers Future

In the ever-changing, yet remarkably predictable, landscape of the NBA playoffs, it now seems like we'll see the Celtics play the Lakers or Spurs in the Finals. I think the Celtics Game 3 win in Detroit was pretty definitive and that it showed that KG will not be stopped in his run to the Finals. On the other hand, though the Lakers looked great in LA, I really think that this series could go the full seven and it's anyone's guess who would win the final game.

One sad reality of the playoffs this year is that though we've seen a lot of great series, particularly in round two, not a lot of games were great. Teams would dominate at home and fold on the road. The San Antonio- New Orleans series was most pronounced in its pendulum swings. San Antonio- Phoenix should've been a great series, but instead it became the anticlimactic end of the Suns' run, which all came down to a few shots in Game 1. Now Mike D'Antoni is coach of the Knicks (what?), Shaq is the Suns' center, and Steve Nash will be asking for a trade in a matter of months.

This year's NBA has been highlighted by a struggle between the old guard (Pistons and Spurs) against the new (Celtics and Lakers). Though, the Celtics are more a team like the Heat were that will play great then fade real fast due to the age of their cobbled-together stars. The Sixers (!), Hawks and Cavs looked strong in the East this year--and will be strong in the future. Out West, New Orleans went from out of the playoffs to the number two seed, Portland somehow put together a decent season, and Utah and L.A. look like they'll be meeting in the playoffs for the next five years.

The future of the NBA is bright, but the future of the Sixers is murky. This year, the Bulls were out of the playoffs in the East; with Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley, I can't imagine they'll miss the playoffs again. The Pistons, Celtics, Magic, and Cavs should be there again barring a tragic injury. The Sixers, Hawks, Wizards, and Raptors will be fighting for the last three playoff spots with teams like the Bucks, Bobcats, Nets, and Knicks, who all could be greatly improved. If the Sixers make a big signing and add a good player through the draft, they should maintain their playoff position. But that's not guaranteed. Larry Brown and Mike D'Antoni will make the Bobcats and Knicks, respectively, better. The Nets should be better next year. The Bulls will definitely be a lot better.

The team the Sixers are most like right now is the Hawks and, on paper at least, the Hawks look better right now. Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and Al Horford are a better core three than Andre Miller (who may be gone soon), Andre Iguodala, and Thaddeus Young. We have Lou Williams, they have Marvin Williams. The Hawks are really a good point guard and a smart coach away from being a great team in the East. Then again, they could also easily become the Clippers-East with a bevy of talent that leaves town due to dysfunctional team management.

The Sixers may have made the playoffs this year, but they were not even a .500 team. They have a major hole at power forward. Their center is extremely inconsistent and frequently boneheaded. They lack depth at point guard, power forward, and center.

I'm not trying to go negadelphia on everyone here, but though the future's bright we have a long way to go. The Lakers, Jazz, Hornets, Blazers, Spurs, Cavs, Pistons, Celtics, and Magic all must be leapfrogged to get to where we want to be. I can see it arguably happening in an East where the Celtics and Pistons won't be great for very much longer, but the West will be very, very tough for years to come. The Sixers could be the next Pistons... but right now they look like the next Wizards or Magic: a team with some great pieces (Dwight Howard, Gilbert Arenas, Andre Iguodala), but just enough holes to make it a perenially mediocre squad. We haven't even gone through Year One of the Ed Stefanski Era, but we must all understand that, playoffs aside, this team has a long way to go.

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