Defense Wins Championships: The Championship Formula

From the vantage point of the absolute drubbing the Celtics gave the Lakers on Tuesday night, it would seem obvious that defense wins championships. Yet if we take a step back to look at the past 10 years in the NBA, the enormity of that realization can be appreciated.

First, 4 of the past 10 champions have been the Spurs, consistently one of the best defensive teams in the league. Led by a tough defensive coach with Tim Duncan anchoring the D.

For 3 years, from late 1999 to early 2002, the Lakers Dynasty dominated the NBA Finals. They won those 3 Finals by a combined 12-3 tally. Shaquille O'Neal anchored the Lakers D, Phil Jackson was the coach.

In the past 5 years a strange pattern has emerged as the Lakers Dynasty has folded. The Spurs have won in odd numbered years and an Eastern team has won in even numbered years. It has gone: Spurs, Pistons, Spurs, Heat, Spurs, Celtics.

Two of the three Eastern Champions beat a Lakers team featuring Kobe Bryant. The only team to break the Lakers and Spurs strangehold on the West were the Mavericks in 2006. The East has, thus, featured much more diversity in champions than the West (Boston, Cleveland, Miami, NY, NJ, Philly, Indiana, and Detroit have all been to the Finals in the past 10 years with only Det and NJ seeing the Finals twice), even though the perception holds that the West is a much tougher conference. That said, the Spurs-Lakers strangehold could either weaken over the next few years or, if present prognostications regarding LA hold, strengthen.

The three East Champions--the Celtics, Heat and Pistons--were all defensive juggernauts. The Pistons and Celtics tore apart a supposedly superior Lakers team. The Pistons did it to washed-up veterans (Karl Malone and Gary Payton) along with Kobe and Shaq; the Celtics did it to young players (Vujacic, Gasol, Farmar, et al.) along with Kobe and Odom. The Heat featuring Shaq, Alonzo Mourning, Dwyane Wade, James "The Mercenary" Posey, and Udonis Haslem also possessed a stifling defense that shut-down the softer, more offensively-minded Mavericks. Somehow the Mavs and Lakers were able to get past the Spurs to lose to the Heat and Celtics in the Finals. I truly believe that the Spurs, with their tough D, would've given the Heat and Celtics much greater problems. They also would've matched up better with the Pistons, as evidenced by their Finals victory against Detroit, and against the Celtics (TD on KG instead of Gasol on KG, Manu on Pierce, and Parker on Rondo with Bowen/Udoka on Ray Allen).

Could we see Duncan v. Garnett in the Finals next year? I think it's entirely possible if the Spurs reload with some younger talent and shooters to put around TD, Manu, and Tony Parker. Ime Udoka and Ian Mahinmi will help, but they need to upgrade from the Michael Finleys, Damon Stoudamires, and Brent Barrys of the world as well. Duncan has clearly been the far superior player when compared to KG with 4 championships to prove it. TD is a lock down defender just like KG, but Duncan has an amazing offensive skill-set that no one else possesses.

The teams that have lost the Finals have been Eastern pretenders, weakly-composed LA teams, and a soft Mavs team. The teams that won have been very strong defensive teams led by a great big man. The Spurs had Duncan (and Robinson), the Lakers and Heat had Shaq, the Pistons had the Wallaces, and the Celtics had KG.

The Formula for success:
1) Great defensive team
2) At least one elite PF or C

The Jordan Years are clearly over, but even with the much-bandied "hand check rule" the Kings, Suns, Warriors, and Mavs have 0 finals wins and 1 finals appearance between them (though, yes, the Kings got very, very close). What will the future bring?

Orlando has a dominant center in Dwight Howard. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol--plus some defensive help--could make the Lakers a dynasty again. Amare Stoudemire with Shaq could needle their way through the West playoffs--though I think its unlikely. LeBron James will need to get a great big man to add to his team's already very good D to get over the hump. The Celtics look set for the next 2-3 years. The Rockets have the D and the big man, they just have to be healthy to make their run. The Hornets, with some defensive improvements, could have the right formula to make it to the Finals. And, of course, the Spurs have just as good a chance as any team to make it once again.....

So how do I see the West and East rankings according to championship potential over the next 3 years given what we know right now?

West
1. Spurs
2. Lakers
3. Rockets
4. Blazers (Oden is a big question mark)
5. Hornets
6. Suns
7. Jazz
8. Mavericks

East
1. Celtics
2. Magic (they just have to add to Howard)
3. Bulls (they have size and D)
4. Cavs (need that big man)
5. Pistons (need to retool, but they have been consistently great)
6. Raptors (with Bosh and improved D they could be big contenders)
7. Hawks (they have some very good pieces)
8. Bobcats (LB will teach them D if he stays)

Where does that leave the Sixers?
I think they have they are around the Hawks, Bobcats and Raptors in their future championship potential but they have no big man while the Hawks have Horford, Raps have Bosh, and Cats have Okafor. The Sixers do have some good wing players that could become a great defensive unit, but its hard to tell this second where they'll be. As for the Pistons, I ranked them low because the Celtics, Magic, Bulls, and Cavs should dominate for the next few years. I think Detroit can be in the conversation too, but I am unsure of where they'll be exactly.

In the West, the Spurs and Rockets seem to have the championship formula down, though Yao is decidedly not a great defensive big like Shaq and TD were/are. If Bynum becomes a great defensive big, the Lakers should shoot to the top of the West for a long time. The Blazers and Hornets could crack the top of the conference if they continue their fast improvement.

A Great Defense and A Great Big Man. That is the championship formula. Jordan's Bulls deviated from that on the big man front but they had an awesome D, the best player in the game, the best second-best player in the game (Pippen), great role players, and, yes, great Power Forwards in Horace Grant and Dennis Rodman (he was at least as good as Ben Wallace). Perhaps LeBron or Kobe can create more exceptions to this rule, but the rule seems quite robust over the past 10 years and it truly shows why getting that one great big man is the dream of every team drafting in the NBA.