Draft Day is upon us. So much is going on that I'll stick it to bullet points on the draft, trades and the Sixers:
- Jermaine O'Neal was traded from the Pacers to the Raptors for TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the no. 17 pick. I think that this helps the Raptors immeasurably. Yes, O'Neal has a huge contract but I think TJ Ford is much more injury prone and the Raptors can retain Jose Calderon and still get great production. Having two great big men--with Bargnani, Calderon, Parker, etc.--will be a huge advantage for Toronto. This could catapult them into the top tier of the East if Jermaine stays healthy. As for the Pacers, ESPN is saying this move will give them a lot of cap room next year, which should definitely help. They seem to be in an ugly mid-stage phase with the injury-prone Ford and Tinsley at the guard spots, two picks in the draft (who could contribute), and some perimeter guys. I think Jim O'Brien will want to create a perimeter-style team like the Antoine Walker-Paul Pierce Celtics with a lineup like TJ Ford, Mike Dunleavy, Donte Green, Danny Granger, and Troy Murphy. My opinion: that's a dangerous regular season team and a bad post-season one.
- ESPNews is now reporting that the Sonics have swapped the 4 pick to the Clippers for no. 7. The Blazers bought no. 27 from the Hornets, meaning the Hornets will look to add a free agent rather than a draftee, and the Bobcats, this year's East darkhorse due to the presence of Larry Brown, bought the no. 20 pick from Denver. Why the Sixers never buy a late first-rounder is beyond me. They have as many holes as anyone else....
- I vacillate between thinking that this is a great, deep draft and a very thin one. There are A LOT of young big players that could be great or busts in the draft between Koufos, Ajinca, McGee, Jordan, Speights, Hickson, Thompson, Hibbert, the Lopez twins, and Randolph. I'm probably even forgetting a few there. Most likely busts seem to be McGee and Jordan--though Jordan seems to have the most upside of the group. Given recent history, it is just flat impossible that more than 50% of these big men turn out to be good. At least half, and probably two-thirds, will be total busts. I think the "potential" guys like Ajinca, Jordan, McGee, and Randolph have the greatest bust potential because they haven't shown anything yet. The safer picks--Hibbert, Koufos, the Lopez twins--don't have as high a ceiling, but don't have as low a floor either. The only player of the group that appears like he COULD become a dominant defensive big man is Jordan, but he also looks extremely raw. The one-year college rule has definitely added more knowledge about players to the draft and guys that did nothing in college should raise some red flags.
- Who should the Sixers take then? I think Donte Green could be good, but he could also be the next Damone Brown (remember him?). The Sixers basically have to take a big man that they think could either become their backup center, starting center, or power forward. Speights excites me the most of the group since he has actually produced something in college. Jordan scares me. He just wreaks of being a total bust and waste of a pick, though he does have the most potential (he was being discussed as a top five pick before workouts began). Koufos seems like an offensive guy and we have Jason Smith already. Robin Lopez kind of excites me. He's a skilled hustle guy who will give the Sixers size and he's definitely not going to be a total waste of a pick. If his ceiling is Anderson Varejao, then I think that's great. Ajinca seems intriguing but he is most probably a Euro-bust pick. McGee is most definitely going to be a third-string center type guy and we already are stuck with Calvin Booth for one more year. Finally, if we can get Anthony Randolph who seems a bit like Tyrus Thomas (but rail thin), I think he could really help us. I doubt he's there though.
- I think this draft will have a lot of bust picks in it. There are so many young players and Euros that have limited experience in it and that have not yet produced much. A lot of big players are in this draft, and big men bust quite a bit (ask Seattle/OKC). I think Derrick Rose and a couple other guys from the draft will be great players. There will be a lot of rotation type guys coming out of this draft between the first and second rounds since there are just so many players that appear to be of equal value. There will also be some amazing late-round finds. The later picks may turn out to be better than the early ones, like in some previous draft (the Kobe draft comes to mind). Some guy picked in the early second may be the third best player taken in the whole thing. The Sixers have to be VERY careful. They could easily get a great player at 16, someone much better than they would get in most other drafts (where there are more "knowns) at that pick, but they could just as easily get someone completely useless. Think either Carlos Boozer or Jerome Moiso.
2 comments:
Interesting stuff Gabe, especially about the potential busts that exist in the first round.
To me, Deandre Jordan is a perfect example of someone who could have all the potential in the world, but will either never work to improve himself or never gain the discipline necessary to succeed in professional athletics. Granted he's young, but come on - he looked lackadaisical and careless in most of A&M's games this past season and he plays little or no defense. He will be drafted specifically on future potential and will make an NBA general manager furiously frustrated in the next few years, guaranteed.
Donte Green is an intriguing name, but he's not what the Sixers need. He has little or no strength and little or no inside game to compete with the bigs in the NBA down low. He has a great touch from outside (especially given his height) but is a huge defensive liability. He also did not exhibit much discipline throughout his freshman year at Syracuse, jacking up a plethora of ugly threes that absolutely may have cost his team an NCAA berth down the stretch. Lastly, something bothers me about this kid in that he could easily return to school for one more season, work on smoothing out his defense and bulking up for next year's draft. Instead, it seems that he is content to simply settle for less, rather than spending another year with Jim Boeheim really becoming a dominant player who can score from anywhere on the court.
I also don't trust a guy like Alexis Ajinca who has the following written about him: "Ajinca hasn't played much against top competition and has seen only sporadic action for his French squad - averaging just 11 minutes." You're entrusting the cornerstone of the future of your franchise to a guy who couldn't even crack the regular rotation of his CLUB TEAM IN FRANCE??
I really like Darrell Arthur for the Sixers. He is one of the few potential draftees who has the whole package - he has shown flashes of dominance in his two years at KU, he has shown that he is a winner given the run Kansas had in the past tournament, and he also has room for improvement which will come from competing against the best athletes in the world. Essentially, he has already shown that he is worthy of a lottery pick, while also retaining a ceiling higher than his current draft stock.
I would choose Arthur if he is still available, but I think we may see some movement (trading up or down) if Stefanski believes the perfect fit for the team can be had at not too steep of a price. Either way, tonight and the upcoming summer of free agency will be extremely interesting for deciding the future of the squad.
Don't dog J Moiso, dog! He's our friend.
Post a Comment