LeBron and the New NBA Season

I've been mulling the changes in the NBA due to LeBron's defection for some time.

I think my initial impulse was that it would be "unfair" for the 3 big FAs to join up in Miami. I thought that it would be bad for competition and generally was bad sportsmanship. When you're playing a pick-up game, it's always obnoxious when the three best guys wanna play together so they can mop the floor with everyone else.

So, I think to me the big question will be: is this team TOO good? I asked a similar question when Barkley and Pippen joined the Rockets (leading to Pippen later calling Barkley a fatass who couldn't get in shape) and when Malone and Payton joined the Lakers (leading to Karl Malone's famous "hunting for little Mexican girls" comment). Those teams imploded memorably, but they were also one-shot deals full of stars who were on their last legs and they went down to "real" teams. The Rockets lost to the Sonics and Jazz; the Lakers famously went down to an incredibly tight Detroit Pistons team.

Yet this new combination is different. It's not a one-shot flier. All 3 guys signed 6-year deals (Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem have also joined up for 5). This is three franchise guys joining together at the height of their careers. LeBron and Wade are arguably two of the top 3 or 4 or 5 players in the league. Bosh is the best young power forward in the league.

This is the first time that players made it happen, not owners. You can't say Kupchack got Chris Wallace again or Kevin McHale gifted Danny Ainge. That's the beautiful and ugly part of this arrangement. It's not about a little kid dreaming up how he can craft the perfect team, it's the three best guys available saying screw it, let's join up and circumventing the traditional GM-built team. You can pat Pat Riley on the back all you want, but he didn't really "do" anything that the Nets, Bulls, Knicks, and others weren't doing. He cleared more cap space, yes. But he took the same risk that others did. Perhaps he even had inside information from Wade. Everyone else assumed that Wade and LeBron would want to join a team with "assets," so we assumed that they'd wanna join the Bulls with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. The Knicks went the same course when they committed to Amare because they thought "we're not attractive otherwise." The Nets had Favors, Lopez and Harris...all were expendable, but it was thought that adding LeBron and Bosh to the mix would make for a great squad.

No one thought, "You wanna have no one on your team so that they can all join up here." One reason was that this was a humongous risk. Say the Knicks don't sign Amare, they trade Gallinari for nothing (like the Heat strangely did with Beasley only to replace him with Miller), maybe they dump Wilson Chandler too. Then they have two options: win huge or become a horrible team. The Nets ended up having to scrounge for scraps: Travis Outlaw, Johan Petro, and Anthony Morrow with their cap room.

One reason that the Heat were THE ONLY TEAM that could pursue this strategy was the salary cap rules. A team can go over the cap to sign it's own player when they have Bird Rights. The Heat already had Wade, he was a magnet for the other two. They could free up space for Bosh and then wait to see if LeBron would want to come too. I think that the worst-kept secret of free agency was that Wade and Bosh were joining up. After meeting with both, Mikhail Prokhorov said that he was convinced they were going to the Heat. I think it's highly likely that LeBron made a charade of joining other squads but had made up his mind to join those two long ago too. I think it's a definite that Riley pursued this strategy not because he's a visionary or an amazing genius, but because Wade told him it was possible. Wade was THE ONLY big free agent to recruit other players. LeBron would not meet with Tom Izzo nor would he give assurances to FAs that wanted to join Cleveland over the years. The Twitter picture of Bosh and Wade dining waiting for "someone else" was a ridiculous give-away. LeBron pretended to mull his choice, but the Heat had him all along.

The hubris involved in the decisions here was offputting to many, myself included. The Decision show was ill-conceived and overwrought. LeBron wants to say "I'm still the Man," even though I'm joining an All-Star team. Wade and Bosh and LeBron met with teams in what was more of a spectacle than an information-gathering session. W and B brought camera crews along, LeBron planned an hour-long decision special. These guys could not have come off as more arrogant.

Is this a change of the guard? The players now being in control instead of the owners? If it is, it may be fleeting with a lockout looming and the final Heat product not yet court- and playoff-tested. On the one hand it's a sea change to see players "creating" their own teams rather than letting GMs call the shots. Yes, stars have whined their ways into better situations before, but never have they colluded to create a potential champion like this. A star may join an already solid squad looking to re-up (see Malone and Payton or Barkley and Pippen or Artest on the Lakers), but never have 2 big stars decided to join a third like this. I would say it's refreshing if it didn't tilt the playing field so far in their favor. The only team I see seriously competing them is the Lakers. The Magic and Celtics could too, maybe the Thunder or the Jazz, maybe the Sixers or the Bobcats magically match up well. But really, all I'm thinking is that there will be 1-3 years of the Lakers challenging this squad followed by some years of outright dominance.

People say they can't play together: they're crazy. People say it won't work: it will. The big questions are: do these guys have what it takes to win it all? (LeBron especially) and Will they be willing to do the dirty work to get there or will they all loaf around expecting the others to pick up the slack?

There are some obstacles: the team may be stuck as is due to present or future salary-cap restrictions. The team won't be able to re-up much via draft. It will not have many trade chips for improvement. Wade in particular may get injured (see 2007 Heat squad) thus making this team that much more beatable.

In my mind, though it's LeBron's choice to go wherever he pleases, on the grounds of competition I don't like this arrangement. I never liked "mercenary" teams like the 2006 Heat that attracted every washed-up star looking to snag a ring. I like squads like the old Pistons, the Thunder and the Suns that add pieces but maintain continuity. Part of the joy of being a fan is seeing your team develop players (like Jrue Holiday). The attachment to free agents is always tenuous (see Elton Brand or Jevon Kearse) and, to be honest, most free agent signings do not pan out. The last time a Florida team tried to construct a champion using free agency it worked out miserably: the Grant Hill-Tracy McGrady Magic were always hobbled and the two stars rarely saw the court together. Still, even on paper, the team wasn't the top in the NBA (like the new Heat look like).

The best scenario that can come of this will be an NBA that is even more top-team-oriented with 3 or 4 All-Star teams competing with 26 mediocre squads. The new collective bargaining agreement may in fact crystallize the current layout since teams will presumably have much less to spend on free agents and I don't see incentives to keep your own guys (Bird Rights) going away.

I think if the process had been less manufactured and more candid, we may even be cheering the Three Kings rather than wringing our hands about them. LeBron came out of this looking like a punk. Wade came out fine and Bosh came out, in Stan van Gundy's words, looking like "Wade's lapdog." That the three are looking to "have fun" and "make the game easy" is a bit disconcerting to fans who would rather see Lakers-Celtics than Globetrotters-Generals. Further in a league that has become increasingly talent-diluted, the new Heat should be able to kill on most nights. I think most fans were angling for a Bosh-Wade Heat and a LeBron-Rose-Noah Bulls or a LeBron-Amare Knicks. That would have been something to get excited about. An All-Star team yukking it up against the Sixers might produce some Sportscenter clips but not any scintillating basketball.

NBA Preview

Here's a quick prediction for the future season:

In the East the playoff seedings will be:

1) Orlando Magic--I think they'll put up the best record behind an improved Dwight Howard, a recommitted Rashard Lewis, and a desire to grab regular season top-honor's.
2) Miami Heat--They'll win a lot of laughers, have some mid- or early-season troubles and maybe cool off a bit during stretches when they wanna rest their stars for the playoffs. I could see them being as low as a four-seed, though they may not wanna be in the top-seeds bracket.
3) Boston Celtics--They could challenge the Heat if everything goes right.
4) Atlanta Hawks--same team, dangerous in the regular season but won't go far.
5) Milwaukee Bucks--super-sleeper team now that they'll have a healty Bogut, Corey Maggette, and some other nice additions (Gooden, Larry Sanders) to add to Brandon Jennings. This could be a trouble "team" for Miami.
6) Chicago Bulls--with Boozer, Rose, and Noah they will be a very good squad. I could see them rising as high as the number 3 seed.
7) Philadelphia 76ers--one can hope, right? I could see them having a promising but not playoff-bound season or competing for a spot. I was considering putting New York here but I think their roster is still malformed, Amare will get hurt, and things will continue to go downhill. If the Sixers make it, that would mean that Turner and Iguodala have great seasons (or Iggy moves out for something decent), Holiday and Young improve, and Brand won't suck. As I said before, this spot could easily go to Indiana, New York or Charlotte.
8) Cleveland Cavaliers--they could be terrible, but I'm going out on a limb here and saying that they will be a nice, veteran squad and Byron Scott will get them to play hard.

Crappy teams: Raptors will be abysmal, Nets will be more respectable but bad, Bobcats will be worse though they'll compete for a playoff spot, Wiz will be much-improved with Wall but must deal Arenas for front-court help before they can make a jump, Pacers will be ok again, Pistons won't be great.

East Playoffs: Magic beat Cavs, Heat beat Sixers, Celtics beat Bulls (toss-up), Bucks beat Hawks (this time). Round two: Bucks beat Magic (in a tight one), Heat beat Celtics (in a tight one). ECF: Bucks (or Magic) scare Heat but Heat win (though my heart says Bucks or Magic beat Heat, I don't think either team has the talent when one is relying on Vince Carter and the other on Corey Maggette).

West:

1) Lakers--should be dominant. Big worry as always: Bynum's health and PG position.
2) Mavs--super deep with Haywood and Chandler in the middle. Potential team to knock off the Heat (wouldn't that be beautiful irony?).
3) Jazz--I think Al Jefferson could be a great addition.
4) Thunder--not as into Cole Aldrich as Sam Presti is, but Durant, Westbrook, and Harden will improve. So will Ibaka. This team can be sick. Can be the future-team to knock off Heat and Lakers. (Mavs may be the present one).
5) Spurs--Splitter should improve them. Sleeper team just like last year.
6) Blazers--another really deep squad building from the ground up. If Oden's healthy, watch out.
7) Rockets--could shoot up if Yao is healthy. Really nice building job by Morey.
8) Suns--can't count out Steve Nash. Last year before the season I thought they'd do great. This year, I think they could be very good or implode. No Amare a big question-mark.

Crappy teams: Warriors will be abysmal, Wolves have some pieces but roster is a mess (need Rubio), LA Clippers have talent but Baron is getting older and they're never healthy, Kings will be very good (Cousins may make Sixers fans wish we got him), Grizzlies will compete for a playoff spot (could get number 8), Nuggets could easily get a spot if Yao is unhealthy, Blazers have issues or Suns take a step-back, I'm just not into their lack of depth and think the West is stacked.

West Playoffs: Lakers beat Suns, Mavs beat Rockets, Blazers beat Jazz, Thunder beat Spurs. Round 2: Lakers barely beat Thunder (their year is the year after next), Mavs beat Blazers.
WCF: Lakers beat Mavs.

Championship: Lakers v. Heat (duh). Heat will want it a lot. If Lakers are healthy though, I think their cohesion and experience will win it. Phil will ride off into the sunset. Fisher may retire. The Heat will look to add a center and some more role-players in a bid to meet the Thunder in the 2012 Finals.