NBA Free Agency

So what will happen?

Here's what we (think we) know:

1. Joe Johnson will re-sign for a ridiculous contract with Atlanta.
2. Rudy Gay will do the same with Memphis.
3. Sounds like Amare Stoudemire will go to New York.
4. Pierce and Nowitzki will re-sign with their teams.
   

That leaves the big guns: LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. Plus some decent other pieces: Boozer, David Lee.

1. I'm guessing David Lee goes somewhere like New Jersey.
2. LeBron has a few good options: stay with Clev., move to Chicago, move to Miami, outside shot: NJ/NY. My guess is that he does not want to go to a broken down Knicks team nor a rebuilding NJ outfit. Miami doesn't have many players but he could team up with Wade there and create a team on the fly--ultimately I don't see him "going to Wade's team." That leaves Chicago and Cleveland. I don't think he would mesh that well with Derrick Rose, but that may be beside the point. Rose is way better than Mo Williams. Noah is better than Varejao. The Cavs have a bunch of other role players, the Bulls can create the same thing. The Cavs do have more money to offer and I think a coach and town that LeBron prefers.
3. Scenario 1: LeBron re-signs with Cleveland; that means Bosh and Wade I think go to either Miami or Chicago together (LeBron may regret this given that Chicago would thus destroy Cleveland).
4. Scenario 2: LeBron moves to Chicago, Bosh signs on too. Wade and Boozer go to Miami. Cleveland a shell of itself. NY/NJ gather players like Iguodala and Al Jefferson in salary dump trades and improve somewhat.

Those scenarios assumed that LeBron is moving things. But all three players have a choice. Still, they all could get hurt by being first-movers. Why? Look at what happened when Elton Brand marooned Baron Davis in Clipperland. The last mover will get the most information in this game and benefits the most (at least this summer). Bosh is positioning himself this way as a complimentary player for either LeBron or Wade. That said, I think L and W could screw him if they went to a team like Miami together. That's assuming that no team can sign all 3 to money that they find reasonable (a fair assumption). So let's look at Wade next:

1. Realistically, he's looking at two destinations: Chicago and Miami. If he re-signs with Miami, he needs to either get Bosh or LeBron there too, or at worst someone like Boozer (which would help only somewhat).
2. He could go to the Bulls, though I think that him and Rose have very similar games. Really, Bosh would help the Bulls the most. But, here again, the Bulls assure him of being on a better team.

Now Bosh could go in a few directions. He's not going to Toronto. He's not going to NY/NJ. He could go to Miami or Chicago or do his own thing via sign-and-trade to Houston (or LA Lakers).

1. If he sign-and-trades to Houston (or LAL), he's on a great or solid team. LeBron could then safely re-sign with Cleveland or go to Bulls. Wade could then go back to Miami with perhaps Boozer (and/or a salary dump guy like Granger, Iguodala, Al Jefferson) or go to the Bulls himself.
2. If Bosh moves first to Miami or Chicago, he forces the other two to think fast. Do they all go with him and take less money? If Wade and Bosh go to Miami, maybe LeBron teams up with Rose in Chicago or does his own thing. Wade and Bosh in Chicago forces LeBron to go to NY/NJ/Cleveland.
3. Bosh can wait and see what LeBron and Wade do and then choose. The thing is, they will want him to decide who he wants to go with (LeBron or Wade). Reportedly, and I don't blame him, Bosh does not want to go to Cleveland.

OK, let's sort things out:

1. All of the free agents have a semi-sure thing in Chicago. Best option for LeBron, Wade AND Bosh is to go there from a roster/winning perspective.
2. The logical choice then is for LeBron and Bosh to team up in Chicago. What then for Wade? He could try to lure Boozer and other guys like Mike Miller, Brad Miller, Richard Jefferson to Miami and form a decent veteran team. He could also go to NJ or NY. Or, he could take a big pay cut and go to Chicago. Unlikely.
3. LeBron's emotions may dictate that he stay in Cleveland. This would mean that Wade and Bosh could go to Miami (Wade's strong preference), and we'd have a decent playing field for all of the Eastern Conference. Good Cleveland team, solid Chicago team (they could add Boozer and some other guys), very good Miami team.
4. If Wade is serious about going to Chicago, he could throw a wrench in things. He and Bosh could go there together and form a super team with Rose OR he and LeBron could join forces there (LeBron wouldn't have to worry about joining "Wade's team" in this scenario). If he and Bosh signed with Chicago, then LeBron's best bet would be to go back to Cleveland or try to see what sort of squad NY or NJ can put together. If LeBron and Wade join Chicago (crazy, I know), then Bosh could go to NY or NJ--this scenario would destroy both Miami and Cleveland.

OK, so what are the conclusions, here?:

1. If the other guys are really waiting for LeBron, then he will be wise to choose Chicago and join with Wade or Bosh, this assures him the best money/team combination.
2. Chicago will then be the top team in the East and can rival the Lakers.
3. Whomever does not join LeBron in Chicago (I'm guessing Wade), will be able to form a decent squad in Miami or NY/NJ out of veteran free agents and salary dumps.
4. Wade and Bosh could preempt LeBron and screw him, but wherever he goes that team will be good. And, honestly, Wade and Rose or Wade/LeBron/Rose would be super-redundant.
5. LeBron could just go to Cleveland, but it would prove unwise because Chicago and Miami would be better teams (though a Wade/Bosh Miami team with little else would be beatable). Still, whatever team LeBron goes to will be excellent, so he won't be screwed if he goes to Cleveland unless Wade and Bosh team up on Chicago (which I think would not be Wade's preference, he'd prefer to bring Bosh to Miami).

Two big scenarios then are: LeBron and Bosh to Chicago (potential championship team), with Wade and others to Miami; AND LeBron to Cleveland, Wade and Bosh to Miami, Chicago fills with other veterans. In the unlikely scenario that Bosh chooses LAL or Houston, then Chicago/Miami team-up options become less attractive and either LeBron re-signs with Cle or he and Wade team up somewhere (most likely Chicago).

I've been waiting for someone to break it down. So I just did it myself.